Week 18 can be one of the more confusing to judge out of the entire season. With teams having differing motivations entering the final week of the season, it creates an intriguing dynamic. Let’s examine how the sportsbooks feel Week 18 will go by examining the early NFL odds with spreads, moneylines, and over/unders for each game.
All odds listed below are correct as of 6 a.m. ET on Monday, Jan. 2, 2023.
Early NFL Week 18 Odds
One of the biggest elements for Week 18 NFL betting is trying to unpack the various motivations teams will have going into their games. Some teams are playing for pride, others are fighting for playoff spots or seedings, and others are considering resting players ahead of the playoffs next week. Let’s take a whistle-stop tour around the Week 18 NFL odds and look at what storylines may shape each game.
Chiefs vs. Raiders | Saturday
- Chiefs Odds: -425
- Raiders Odds: +340
- Spread: Chiefs -9.5
- Over/Under: 50.5
The Las Vegas Raiders nearly did the unexpected and defeated the San Francisco 49ers with Jarrett Stidham under center in Week 17. Unfortunately, their overtime loss means their season is over heading into Week 18. However, the Raiders have a lot to play for on Saturday — pride and setting the tone for the franchise going into a key offseason.
Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs just made a meal of defeating another eliminated team in the Denver Broncos. The Raiders pushed the Chiefs all the way in their previous meeting, losing a close game 30-29. Kansas City has covered just once in the last five weeks, and this could be another close battle, at least in terms of the spread (if not the game itself).
Titans vs. Jaguars | Saturday
- Titans Odds: +245
- Jaguars Odds: -295
- Spread: Jaguars -6.5
- Over/Under: 39
The AFC South will be decided on Saturday night when the Jacksonville Jaguars host the Tennessee Titans. The Jaguars come in hot, having won their last four games, covering in all four (including defeating the Titans in Tennessee in Week 13). They will also be riding high after vanquishing the Texans 31-3 in a Houston demolition job.
MORE: Week 18 NFL Power Rankings
In contrast, the Titans have not won since Week 11 and are 0-5-1 against the spread in their last six. Their offense, even without Derrick Henry, showed signs of life against the Dallas Cowboys last week. However, it is not a surprise to see the Jaguars favored by almost a touchdown at home, and this feels like a game that should be comfortable for the Jaguars unless they get tight under the national spotlight with a playoff spot on the line.
Giants vs. Eagles | Sunday
- Giants Odds: +575
- Eagles Odds: -800
- Spread: Eagles -13.5
- Over/Under: 40.5
The New York Giants are now locked in place as the sixth seed, likely facing a trip to Minnesota next weekend. Therefore, this could easily be a week in which the Giants look to rest players with next week in mind. For that reason, they’re major underdogs against an Eagles side with something to play for this week.
The Eagles have blown two chances to lock up the No. 1 seed in the NFC. While it is nice to imagine the Giants playing hard this week to try and deny the Eagles the first-round bye, it seems unlikely — the Giants have little to play for. Betting on this game is dangerous until we have a better idea of who might play for New York.
Lions vs. Packers | Sunday
- Lions Odds: +185
- Packers Odds: -215
- Spread: Packers -4.5
- Over/Under: 48.5
There is a lot on the line for both the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers on Sunday. Winning streaks in the last two months have left them both with a chance of securing a playoff spot. When they last met back in Week 9, the Lions put up a superb defensive display to hold the Packers to nine points in a victory. However, their offense was hardly dominant, scoring just 15 points.
The Packers have now covered their last four (two as favorites). Meanwhile, the Lions have covered eight of their last nine and are 7-3 against the spread as underdogs. They have also won four of their last five straight up when entering the game as an underdog. This could be a back-and-forth game. But the Packers’ defense has now held their last four opponents to 20 points or less, putting the under very much in play this week.
Cowboys vs. Commanders | Sunday
- Cowboys Odds: -240
- Commanders Odds: +200
- Spread: Cowboys -6
- Over/Under: 41.5
The Washington Commanders’ season ended Sunday with a loss and other results going against them. They have collapsed in a spectacular fashion in the last four weeks, going 0-3-1. They still have pride to play for in a heated divisional rivalry game, and possibly even the future of Ron Rivera as their head coach after watching their season slip away in the last month or so.
The Dallas Cowboys make this game intriguing. If they win and the Eagles lose, they can lock up the division and at least one home game in the playoffs. However, the Eagles should beat the Giants in their Week 18 matchup. Therefore, this could be a game where the Cowboys play their starters but scoreboard watch and bench everyone if the Eagles get a big lead. That possibility makes this game almost impossible to bet on right now.
Rams vs. Seahawks | Sunday
- Rams Odds: +240
- Seahawks Odds: -285
- Spread: Seahawks -6.5
- Over/Under: 41
The Seattle Seahawks are still in the playoff race, but you can virtually guarantee the Los Angeles Rams will not lay down and let them get there easily. With the Rams still having a lot to play for personally, especially QB Baker Mayfield, expect Los Angeles to put up a fight.
However, it is unlikely that it will be enough, especially with a raucous crowd in Seattle. The Seahawks need some help from the Lions, but you can guarantee that this team will go hard to the end. Whether the Rams will have the resolve to keep fighting hard late in the fourth quarter if the Seahawks open up a multi-score lead is up for debate.
The Seahawks and the points look kind of tempting here, even if Seattle could have problems stopping Cam Akers and the Rams’ run game.
Jets vs. Dolphins | Sunday
- Jets Odds: +145
- Dolphins Odds: -170
- Spread: Dolphins -3
- Over/Under: 41
If the New York Jets had won in Week 17, this could have been one of the showdowns of the week. Unfortunately, the Jets were eliminated, but that does not mean there is not a lot to play for. Their QB situation for 2023 is far from settled, and other spots are up for grabs on both sides of the ball. If the Miami Dolphins were hoping the Jets would lay down and get out of their way, they are likely to be disappointed.
MORE: Miami Dolphins’ Season on the Brink as Stars Disappear at the Worst Possible Time
The Dolphins are in free fall. From 8-3, they have slumped to 8-8, putting them on the verge of one of the greatest collapses in NFL history if they now miss the playoffs. With Tua Tagovailoa not expected back, we could see Skylar Thompson playing for both his future and a spot for the Dolphins in the playoffs. The way the Dolphins have been breaking the hearts of their fans lately, the Jets getting a field goal is tempting.
Cardinals vs. 49ers | Sunday
- Cardinals Odds: +500
- 49ers Odds: -675
- Spread: 49ers -13
- Over/Under: 40
While I’d like to argue for this game’s excitement potential, the line says it all. The San Francisco 49ers should breeze past the Arizona Cardinals (similar to Week 11). Then again, we just saw the Raiders take the 49ers to overtime and nearly spring the ultimate surprise.
Arizona’s roster does not appear to have quit on the coach, and many are playing for their futures. San Fran’s roster is stronger right now, even if both teams are on their third or fourth-choice QB. The other element is that the 49ers need to win to secure the first or second seed, so there should be no risk of the 49ers resting players.
Laying 13 points is never a smart move, so this is a line I would still avoid. Additionally, the total is a tricky one. The 49ers could easily get 30-plus points again this week, and the Cardinals should find themselves at least capable of 7-10 points.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons | Sunday
- Buccaneers Odds: +245
- Falcons Odds: -295
- Spread: Falcons -7
- Over/Under: 39
It may seem a surprise that the Atlanta Falcons are favorites in this game, but when you think about the storylines, it should not. It may seem like the Falcons should tank for a better draft position. Nonetheless, with a young QB and a coach who is potentially on the hot seat, a no-show at home in Week 18 is a bad look. They fought right to the end in Week 17, and I expect them to again this week.
Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have nothing to play for and will likely rest the majority of their starters. Any starters we see playing will probably be related to hitting incentives. Even then, the Buccaneers may look to pay those bonuses anyway to rest the majority of their key players on both sides of the ball.
Vikings vs. Bears | Sunday
- Vikings Odds: -120
- Bears Odds: +100
- Spread: Vikings -1.5
- Over/Under: 46.5
The Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears game has similar vibes to the Cowboys-Commanders game. Initially, the Vikings will start off playing to try and secure the second seed. However, if the 49ers open up a big lead against the Cardinals, we could see Minnesota bench all their starters this week.
The Bears are in a similar position to the Falcons. Technically, they should tank for a better draft pick. But this is a roster in transition, with a young QB and a new head coach. Heading into 2023 with a win under the belt might end up being more important than one or two spots of draft capital in the long run.
Chargers vs. Broncos | Sunday
- Chargers Odds: -165
- Broncos Odds: +140
- Spread: Chargers -3
- Over/Under: 40
This could be one of the more intriguing games of Week 18. The Denver Broncos demonstrated last week that they are not laying down for the season. The embarrassment on Christmas Day appeared to spark a sense of togetherness in this roster, and they will be desperate to end the season with a win over their division rivals and a playoff team.
Meanwhile, the Chargers are playing for the fifth seed and the right to face the AFC South winner. That is a tantalizing prize, especially considering the outside shot of hosting a playoff game on Divisional Weekend as the fifth seed. The Ravens-Bengals game could determine their attitude to the second half of this game — there is a scenario where the Chargers decide to rest their starters if the fifth seed appears secure.
Patriots vs. Bills | Sunday
- Patriots Odds: +320
- Bills Odds: -390
- Spread: Bills -8.5
- Over/Under: 42.5
The matchup between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots could mean an awful lot in Week 18. Depending on the result of Monday Night Football, the Bills could be playing to clinch a first-round bye. However, if that ends up not being the case, the Bills have the strange opportunity to potentially dictate the No. 7 seed and their Wild Card Weekend opposition.
MORE: NFL Playoff Picture After Week 17
Despite trying their hardest to give away the seventh seed, the New England Patriots enter this weekend in control of their destiny. A win in Buffalo would both dismiss the shadow of an embarrassing playoff loss last year and give them a playoff spot this year. This team is talented enough to go toe-to-toe with the Bills.
Panthers vs. Saints | Sunday
- Panthers Odds: +185
- Saints Odds: -215
- Spread: Saints -4.5
- Over/Under: 39.5
Unfortunately, this game has become the “nothing to play for” bowl, at least in terms of playoff spots. Both teams have several unanswered questions, and neither head coach has a certain future. Steve Wilks is coaching for an opportunity to have a full-time head coach role in Carolina. Finishing with four wins in his final six games could give him a shot.
Rumors are that Dennis Allen is safe as the New Orleans head coach — and the Week 17 fight against the Eagles will have helped. However, there is a lot to fight for on this roster on both sides of this ball. While there will not be a lot of eyes on this game from a playoff perspective, it could be an entertaining one in terms of being close late into the fourth quarter.
The Saints being 4.5-point favorites feels too much, but it has not been comfortable to bet on either of these teams this season. Even the total is pitched quite nicely because a 21-20 or 20-17 scoreline very much feels in play.
Texans vs. Colts | Sunday
- Texans Odds: +140
- Colts Odds: -165
- Spread: Colts -3
- Over/Under: 38.5
Much like the game above, this matchup between the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts has a ton of subplots. The Texans have the No. 1 pick in their grasp, but a win could see it handed over to the Chicago Bears. However, with a QB likely in the Texans’ minds, Davis Mills will hardly want to play a role in tanking for the first pick.
For the Colts, the story of Jeff Saturday’s future remains open. There is talk that despite everything, Saturday is still in contention for the job full-time. An embarrassing loss at home in Week 18 to the Texans could seal his fate. But then again, who knows what the mind of Jim Irsay is cooking up?
From a pure talent and coaching perspective, I want to take the Texans and the points. However, the risk of losing the No. 1 overall pick is a big element. The Colts are the ones that a win matters more for across the entire organization. If Sam Ehlinger is the starter, despite not wanting to bet on a Saturday-coached team, I would lean toward considering the Colts’ moneyline here.
Ravens vs. Bengals | Sunday
- Ravens Odds: +235
- Bengals Odds: -280
- Spread: Bengals -6.5
- Over/Under: 42.5
At the time of writing on Monday morning, this game is close to impossible to judge. If the Cincinnati Bengals win on Monday night, they clinch the division but would still have an outside shot at the first-round bye. However, they will likely be watching the Chiefs-Raiders score and could easily bench their starters in the second half if their shot at the top seed is disappearing.
The Ravens are also playing for seeding, and right now, we have no idea of their QB situation. In a straight-up game in the middle of the season, the Bengals laying 6.5 would be tempting. Additionally, if the Bengals lose in an embarrassing way against the Bills, we could see this line shrink a little on Tuesday morning.
If the division is up for grabs, give me the Bengals laying the points against a Ravens team with no identity right now. Even if Lamar Jackson is back, the Ravens may treat him cautiously with a playoff spot already in hand and only seeding to play for.
Browns vs. Steelers | Sunday
- Browns Odds: +120
- Steelers Odds: -140
- Spread: Steelers -3
- Over/Under: 40
The Pittsburgh Steelers kept their season alive with a win over the Ravens in Week 17. They now have a chance to secure an unlikely playoff spot if they win and other results go their way. There is also the record of Mike Tomlin always being above .500 — I believe it’ll be a source of pride for a franchise that appears to take its history very seriously.
The wild card in all of this is the Cleveland Browns. They have shown some fight over the past six weeks, going 4-2 in that stretch. While it is still not convincing, they are building a good feeling. There is also a big rivalry here. They’ll want to end the playoff hopes of the Steelers at Acrisure Stadium.
Then again, the Browns have no shot of making the playoffs, and they have a QB whose contract is fully guaranteed. It would look stupid if Deshaun Watson suffered a major injury playing for pride or to try and spite the Steelers.
On top of all that is the uncertainty of Kevin Stefanski’s future. He could point to winning four of six with Watson as a sign that he has this team heading in the right direction. All of those various elements make this game tough to judge. Additionally, it is impossible to feel good about betting on either team or QB right now.