Despite letting two games slip through their hands in the last two weeks, the New England Patriots playoff scenarios still leave their fate in their own hands. However, the Patriots’ playoff chances are significantly decreased heading into Week 17 of the 2022 NFL season, with games against the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills in the next two weeks. Let’s take a look at the various scenarios for New England over the next two weeks of the NFL schedule.
Update: Patriots Win Must-Win Game vs. Miami
The Patriots had to win in Week 17, and they did just that. While it wasn’t always pretty, New England took an errant Teddy Bridgewater pass back for a touchdown to give them the lead and never gave it up. Now it’s on to Week 18 and a contest against the AFC-East leading Buffalo Bills, whom they lost to 10-24 a month ago.
If New England wins next week against Buffalo, they’re in. However, if they lose, they’ll need some help. They got the first part of that when the Seattle Seahawks defeated the New York Jets. Then the San Francisco 49ers eliminated the Las Vegas Raiders from contention.
Here are the following scenarios New England needs to happen next week:
- The Dolphins lose to the Jets in Week 18
- The Titans lose to the Jaguars in Week 18
- The Steelers lose in either Week 17 or Week 18
11:15 PM ET Update: The Steelers defeated the Ravens on Sunday Night Football, 16-13.
Patriots Playoff Scenarios To Watch for in Week 17
Heading into Week 17, the Patriots are in a tricky position in terms of their spot in the NFL standings. At 7-8, they currently sit third in the AFC East and are currently the eighth seed in the AFC. Based on playoff tiebreakers, the Patriots are leading a group of five teams that have a 7-8 record as it stands coming out of Thursday Night Football.
The simplest playoff scenario for the Patriots is for them to win both of their remaining games. In that situation, there is no one that can prevent them from claiming an AFC Wild Card spot. The only team currently ahead of New England for the seventh seed is the Dolphins. However, the Patriots would have the tiebreaker if the two finish on the same record.
There is no playoff scenario where the Patriots can lose this week and still get in. If that were to happen, the Dolphins, Chargers, Ravens, and Bengals would all be at least two games ahead of New England with just one round of matches left to play.
Where things get interesting is if New England wins this week but loses to the Buffalo Bills in Week 18. At that point, they would be relying on other results to go their way. The following scenarios would all have to play out for the Patriots to make the playoffs this season.
- The Jets lose to the Seahawks in Week 17
- The Dolphins lose to the Jets in Week 18
- The Jaguars lose to the Texans in Week 17 OR the Titans lose to the Jaguars in Week 18
- The Steelers lose in either Week 17 or Week 18
- The Raiders lose in either Week 17 or Week 18
What Are the Patriots’ Playoff Chances?
With Thursday Night Football in the books in Week 17, the Patriots currently have a 20% chance of making the playoffs, per FiveThirtyEight. If they lose this week, those chances drop to 0%, as the Patriots would be eliminated. Meanwhile, a victory would see the Patriots’ playoff chances increase to 30%. However, their chances, if they win, would depend on other results this weekend.
For example, if the Jets win in Week 17, FiveThirtyEight put the Patriots’ chances of making the playoffs at 20%. The reason for that is the Patriots would then have to beat the Bills in Week 18. If they lose, the winner of the Jets vs. Dolphins Week 18 game would claim the seventh seed with the superior record of the three teams.
Another element that cannot be directly quantified at this stage is the situation with the top seed in the AFC. If the Buffalo Bills win against the Cincinnati Bengals and the Kansas City Chiefs lose to the Denver Broncos, Buffalo will clinch the one seed. Similarly, if the Bills lose to the Bengals and the Chiefs win, Buffalo would have a very slim chance of getting the one seed.
In those instances, the Bills may consider sitting starters in Week 18. That would significantly increase the Patriots’ odds of winning and their chances of clinching a playoff spot, assuming they beat the Dolphins in Week 17.