While the Baltimore Ravens already clinched a spot in the playoffs in 2022, they still have a number of scenarios as to where they can finish. Depending on results over the next two weeks, the Ravens can finish anywhere from the second seed to the seventh seed, with the exception of the fourth seed. Let’s take a look at the Ravens’ playoff scenarios heading into Week 17 of the 2022 NFL schedule.
4 p.m. ET Update
The Chiefs defeated the Broncos.
The Dolphins lost to the Patriots.
7 p.m. ET Update
The Chargers defeated the Rams.
11:15 p.m. ET Update
The Steelers defeated the Ravens.
Ravens Playoff Scenarios To Watch for in Week 17
As we move into the Sunday of Week 17, Baltimore’s position in the 2022 NFL standings is intriguing. At 10-5, the Ravens still have a shot at winning the AFC North, but the No. 1 seed is out of reach. When it comes to the division, the Ravens have their future in their own hands. If they win both games, Baltimore will top the division and be assured of a home game on Wild Card Weekend.
Even if the Ravens don’t win this week, there is still a path to them winning the division. However, if Baltimore loses to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday Night Football, they would then need the Cincinnati Bengals to lose to the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football. Yet, if the Ravens lose and the Bengals win, Cincinnati would then win the AFC North.
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The Ravens cannot clinch the division in Week 17. Even if they win and the Bengals lose, Week 18 will still decide the fate of the division. Cincinnati won the meeting between the two earlier in the season, so if they win in Week 18, they would have the head-to-head decider when it comes to playoff tiebreakers.
If the Ravens beat the Bengals in Week 18 and finish with the same record, they would have the advantage on the division record tiebreaker. The Ravens would be either 5-1 or 4-2 in the division, depending on the result against the Steelers, while the Bengals would be 2-4 within the AFC North.
In terms of seeding, things are intriguing for Baltimore. There are several different ways they can get to various seedings. If they win out, they are guaranteed to be, at worst, the third seed. They would need the Chiefs to lose both games to have a chance at being the two seed, but even if Buffalo and Kansas City both lose their remaining games, Baltimore cannot get to the one seed.
The Ravens’ loss to the Bills in Week 4 gives Buffalo the head-to-head tiebreaker. Thus, while they can get above the Chiefs in terms of conference record, they cannot get above Buffalo, locking them in as finishing below the Bills, regardless of whether it is a two or three-way tie.
Assuming the Ravens do not win the division, then their Wild Card seeding depends on the results from others. If the Chargers win out and the Ravens lose one game, the Chargers would have the tiebreaker.
Meanwhile, if the Ravens lose both games and the Dolphins win both, Miami would have the head-to-head tiebreaker to push Baltimore into the seventh seed. However, if the Chargers also lose both of their remaining games, the Ravens would finish as the sixth seed.
What Are the Ravens’ Chances of Winning the Division?
According to FiveThirtyEight, the Ravens come into Sunday with a 27% chance of winning their division. If they win, those chances rise to 35%. However, even if the Bengals lose Monday against the Bills, their chances still only top out at 39%.
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The reason for that is the division still comes down to a head-to-head between Baltimore and Cincinnati, and right now, FiveThirtyEight gives the edge to the Bengals, especially at home.