Are you scouring the Internet or an old issue of Us Weekly for ideal Week 18 NFL Survivor Pool picks? Winging it usually doesn’t get the job done. So, how should we strategize with an eye toward the rest of the season? Let’s talk survivor pool NFL betting strategy and optimal team picks.
NFL Week 18 Survivor Pool
Picking one team that is a virtual certainty to win each week sounds easy in theory. However, most NFL survivor pool rules dictate that you can’t select the same team twice.
Sometimes it’s best to lock in a nearly guaranteed win. Other times, it’s better to take a chance to preserve safer options for later. Before we get into this week’s picks — the final picks of the 2022 season — let’s walk through last week’s strategy and results.
I’ve been writing these each week, always picking a different team for my No. 1 recommendation. Heading into last week, the teams I hadn’t used in the No. 1 spot were the Bears, Broncos, Browns, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Colts, Falcons, Jets, Lions, Panthers, Raiders, Saints, Steelers, Texans, and Titans.
As you can see, none of these teams were .500 or better. Yeah, tough times. Desperate times.
So last week, I recommended the Lions with confidence, highlighting how good their offense is, as well as how one-dimensional the Bears’ offense is. Yes, Justin Fields has been a “one-man wrecking crew.” But if he “can’t generate chunk yards on the ground, the team simply can’t stay competitive.”
That’s largely what happened. As the Lions began to pull away, Chicago’s league-worst passing attack had no answers. Fields was 4 for 13 for 42 yards through the air in the second half. Even with the game still in reach, he was scampering for three yards in three-and-outs. The Bears never had a chance.
As a backup option (if you didn’t trust my Lions play, or if you’d already used them earlier this season), I also recommended the Buccaneers over the Panthers. As usual, I’m not interested in easy picks. The Bucs were narrow favorites, but I thought they were near locks to prevail.
I shared that “while the Bucs have mounted a series of comebacks, Carolina isn’t built that way,” and that anytime the Panthers trailed in their previous seven games, they’d never taken the lead.
It happened yet again on Sunday. Tampa Bay came back, and once they took the lead, Carolina never reclaimed it.
Pittsburgh Steelers
As shared above, I haven’t yet recommended the Steelers as my top survivor play. Of my remaining options, they’re the best play.
I’m not convinced that the Browns will risk running with their starters for a full 60 minutes in a meaningless game. A fluke ACL tear to Deshaun Watson, Nick Chubb, Amari Cooper, or Myles Garrett could set this franchise back significantly in 2023.
Speaking of Watson, whatever you think of his $250 million guaranteed contract, there has to be growing concern within this franchise that they’ve boxed themselves into a multi-year corner. He’s had several weeks to get reacclimated, but still looks nothing close to his 2020 form.
Meanwhile, the Steelers have a legitimate shot at the postseason despite starting 2-6 and 5-8. The Patriots face an uphill battle to defeat the Bills, and although I believe Miami has a great shot at beating the Jets, the facts are simple: Pittsburgh will go all in against the Browns. Because they’re oh-so-close to a most unlikely Wild Card spot.
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The tandem of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are playing some inspired football, while rookie Kenny Pickett somehow already looks better than present-day Watson. And the now-healthy T.J. Watt is anchoring a defense that hasn’t surrendered more than 17 points in six straight outings.
Among my remaining teams to choose from, the Steelers are my favorites to wrap up survivor pools with a victory.
Indianapolis Colts
As always, I like to offer at least one backup plan. Maybe you’ve already used Pittsburgh, or maybe you don’t trust my logic. All good. We’re only human.
The Colts are facing the Texans at home in Week 18. Houston is one loss away from “earning” the No. 1 pick in this year’s draft. Of course, a Chicago loss to Minnesota also would get the job done.
But the Bears seemingly don’t need a QB, meaning regardless of what happens, the Texans should be able to land their quarterback of the future — whether C.J. Stroud or Bryce Young or some mystery candidate.
This is the setup for a game that might actually be pretty close. Davis Mills is still playing for a 2023 backup job, while would-be third-stringers like Royce Freeman, Phillip Dorsett, Chris Moore, and others are trying to exit the season with the stats and game tape to merit a roster spot somewhere next season.
Truly, these Texans have been overachievers for most of the season, especially after losing Dameon Pierce. But they have one of the league’s worst run defenses, have surrendered 27+ points in five of six games, and have scored the second-fewest points across the season.
The opposing Colts are in a similar boat with guys like Sam Ehlinger, Zack Moss, Deon Jackson, and Parris Campbell. Campbell, in particular, will be a sought-after free agent this offseason. When healthy, he can be no worse than a No. 3 WR on many clubs.
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Despite their disappointing campaign, the Colts — and their neophyte head coach — have as much to play for as the Texans do. The difference is that top to bottom, Indy has a better team. They have dramatically underperformed in part because they lead the league with 31 turnovers.
A run-heavy approach should do the job against Houston. No more going for the home run. A simple game plan with superior talent should earn the W for the Colts.
And on a side note, it’s been a pleasure writing these survivor pieces all season. Here’s hoping you finish in the money. If you’ve come this far, you deserve it.