Despite entering Week 17 with a 6-9 record, there are still some New Orleans Saints‘ playoff scenarios to consider as they have a chance to win the NFC South or make it to the postseason via a Wild Card berth. Let’s examine the scenarios that could see them make the playoffs this week and the Saints’ playoff chances entering this weekend.
Update: Saints Win Get Eliminated By Packers
How ‘bout them Saints? They were underdogs coming into a must-win game against the Eagles and pulled it out 20-10. While they did their job, so did the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which means the NFC South title is wrapped up.
There’s still a wild card spot up for grabs in the NFC, however. The Saints needed the Commanders to lose, and they did, falling 10-24 to the Browns today. They also needed the Lions to lose one of their final two games, but Detroit did their job against the Bears today, winning 41-10.
However, the excitement did not last long. With the Green Bay Packers defeating the Minnesota Vikings, the Saints are eliminated from playoff contention. No matter the result between the Packers and Lions in Week 18, the Saints cannot finish above both of them.
Saints Playoff Scenarios To Watch for in Week 17
For the Saints to have any chance of making the playoffs, they have to win out. While the focus in their game against the Philadelphia Eagles is largely on their opponent, this is a do-or-die game for New Orleans. However, even if the Saints win out, they would need a few things to go their way if they are to make the playoffs.
The easiest playoff scenario for the Saints comes when looking at how they can win the NFC South. New Orleans is behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers in the NFC South standings. While the Buccaneers are a game ahead at 7-8, the Panthers have the edge based on how things stand in terms of the current playoff tiebreakers. Although the Saints and Panthers play in Week 18, things between those two can still flip.
Therefore, the Saints’ path to the NFC South requires a few things to happen over the next two weeks. The combination of results required to send the Saints to the playoffs as the four seeds are as follows:
- The Saints win both of their remaining games.
- The Panthers win against the Buccaneers in Week 17, or the game ends in a tie.
- The Falcons win against the Buccaneers in Week 18, or the game ends in a tie.
How Can the Saints Get a Wild Card Spot?
If the Buccaneers win and clinch the division in either of the next two weeks, the Saints will have to hope other results go their way if they want to clinch a playoff spot. The path for the Saints to make the playoffs via the Wild Card is far more complicated than for the division. They would need the following outcomes to come into play even to have a chance.
- The Commanders fail to win both of their remaining games and lose at least one.
- The Seahawks either lose one of their remaining games or fail to win either game.
- The Packers lose one of their remaining two games.
- The Lions lose one of their next two games.
However, things are not simple. With the potential for multiple NFC South teams to finish on 8-9, playoff tiebreakers come into play. Unpacking all of those for the various scenarios is complicated when it comes to their record within the conference, their record in common games, their strength of victory, and their strength of schedule potentially involved. Therefore, it is easier to consider the scenarios in Week 17 that would see the Saints eliminated.
How Can the Saints Be Eliminated in Week 17?
The quickest way for the Saints to be eliminated from playoff contention is if they lose to the Eagles. In terms of the NFC South title, they would also be eliminated if the Buccaneers win, regardless of their result. The third scenario for elimination would be if the Saints and Buccaneers both tie.
When it comes to the Wild Card spot, nine scenarios could see the Saints eliminated this week:
- The Saints lose.
- The Saints tie, the Buccaneers tie, and the Commanders win or tie.
- The Saints tie, the Buccaneers win, and the Commanders tie.
- The Saints tie, the Buccaneers win or tie, and the Packers win or tie.
- The Saints tie, the Buccaneers win or tie, and the Lions win or tie.
- The Saints tie, the Buccaneers win or tie, and the Seahawks win.
- The Buccaneers win, and the Commanders win.
- The Buccaneers win, the Lions win, and the Packers win or tie.
- The Buccaneers win, the Lions tie, and the Packers win.
What Are the Saints’ Playoff Chances?
Heading into Week 17, FiveThirtyEight put the Saints’ playoff chances at 3%. In a vacuum, a win for the Saints this week would see their playoff chances increase to 13%, while their chance of winning the division would sit at 10%. However, other results on Sunday will significantly impact the Saints’ playoff chances.
There is a combination of results that could see the Saints come out of Week 17 with playoff chances as high as 34% and a 21% chance at the division. However, as we have discussed, there are also numerous scenarios that could see the Saints with a 0% chance of making the playoffs. Three of those scenarios are completely out of the Saints’ hands.