We all know that football rules American sports viewing in terms of TV ratings. But did you also know that football dominates overall viewing as well? Just last summer, over 70 of the top 100 viewed events for 2020-21 were football events. It’s not just the playoffs or the Super Bowl anymore, it’s every regular-season game. And the league’s marquee event — the NFL draft — dominates the offseason all the same.
The draft dominates spring TV ratings
While the NFL destroys the TV ratings for the fall cycle, the NFL draft is the major headliner for the months of February through August. Considering that’s a timeframe that includes the NBA Playoffs, NHL Playoffs, and opening of the MLB season, it’s a remarkable feat that the NFL’s annual “Player Selection Meeting” commands so much attention.
So much attention that the broadcast partner of the NFL — Disney — has expanded the broadcast to a whopping three networks of simulcast coverage of the same event. After the 2022 NFL Draft was considered a down year for the event, we moved to look at what dictates a successful television audience for the event and what goes into these viewing numbers as a whole.
First things first, let’s take a look at the last nine years of data provided by the NFL in terms of the total number of viewers of the first round of each year’s draft.
- 2014 – 12,373,000 (ESPN/NFL Network)
- 2015 – 8,842,000 (ESPN/NFL Network)
- 2016 – 8,328,000 (ESPN/NFL Network)
- 2017 – 9,226,000 (ESPN/NFL Network)
- 2018 – 11,322,000 (ESPN/NFL Network/ESPN2/Fox)
- 2019 – 11,126,000 (ESPN/ABC/NFL Network)
- 2020 – 15,271,000 (ESPN/ABC/NFL Network)
- 2021 – 12,520,000 (ESPN/ABC/NFL Network)
- 2022 – 10,031,000 (ESPN/ABC/NFL Network)
A couple of things jump out with this data provided. First off, the switch to even more networks providing the same coverage upped the viewers by the millions, but it wasn’t until 2020 that it saw a massively significant jump in audience numbers. Even if 2020 was an outlier, that mark of 11,000,000 with three networks airing the draft was a consistent benchmark, making 2022’s first round stand out like a sore thumb.
Going a bit further, the switch to three (or even four in 2018) broadcasts of the first round was an interesting twist to the event’s total viewers as a whole. Averaging the total viewers by broadcast really isolated the interest in each draft.
- 2014 – 6,186,500 (two networks)
- 2015 – 4,421,000 (two networks)
- 2016 – 4,164,000 (two networks)
- 2017 – 4,613,000 (two networks)
- 2018 – 2,830,500 (four networks)
- 2019 – 3,708,666 (three networks)
- 2020 – 5,090,333 (three networks)
- 2021 – 4,173,333 (three networks)
- 2022 – 3,343,666 (three networks)
Clearly, the interest in the 2022 NFL Draft was down compared to years past. The 2022 NFL Draft marked the lowest total since the event switched to three network broadcasts. It also averaged the lowest number of viewers per platform of any of the last nine draft cycles that aired the first round, save for the 2018 NFL Draft that went to four networks.
What drives the first-round NFL Draft TV ratings?
If the 2022 NFL Draft really lacked interest, as the numbers indicate, the ultimate question became whether or not the players involved dictated that interest. Was there a specific position that headlined previous noteworthy drafts in terms of TV ratings and viewers? An obvious starting point is the quarterback position.
Here’s how the QB class shook out for each of the aforementioned drafts:
2014: Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, Logan Thomas, Tom Savage, Aaron Murray, A.J. McCarron, Zach Mettenberger, David Fales, Keith Wenning, Tajh Boyd, Garrett Gilbert
2015: Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Garrett Grayson, Sean Mannion, Bryce Petty, Brett Hundley, Trevor Siemian, Taylor Heinicke
2016: Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Paxton Lynch, Christian Hackenberg, Jacoby Brissett, Cody Kessler, Connor Cook, Dak Prescott, Cardale Jones, Kevin Hogan, Nate Sudfeld, Jake Rudock, Brandon Allen, Jeff Driskel, Brandon Doughty
2017: Mitchell Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, DeShone Kizer, Davis Webb, C.J. Beathard, Joshua Dobbs, Nathan Peterman, Brad Kaaya, Chad Kelly, Taysom Hill, Nick Mullens
2018: Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, Lamar Jackson, Mason Rudolph, Kyle Lauletta, Mike White, Luke Falk, Tanner Lee, Danny Etling, Alex McGough, Logan Woodside, Kyle Allen
2019: Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins, Drew Lock, Will Grier, Ryan Finley, Jarrett Stidham, Easton Stick, Clayton Thorson, Gardner Minshew, Trace McSorley, David Blough
2020: Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, Jalen Hurts, Jacob Eason, James Morgan, Jake Fromm, Jake Luton, Cole McDonald, Ben DiNucci, Tommy Stevens, Nate Stanley, Tyler Huntley
2021: Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Mac Jones, Kyle Trask, Kellen Mond, Davis Mills, Ian Book, Sam Ehlinger
2022: Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder, Malik Willis, Matt Corral, Bailey Zappe, Sam Howell, Chris Oladokun, Skylar Thompson, Brock Purdy, Carson Strong
With this information, what was learned about each draft? What did the quarterback classes tell us about the first-round TV viewers?
The Manziel Effect jumps out right away because even though he was largely considered a reach in the first round, Manziel’s availability in 2014 had something to do with the interest in that draft’s first stanza. Manziel ultimately fizzled out and came nowhere close to capturing his college magic, but he certainly could carry TV ratings. It’s important to note we have to rewind the clocks to figure out the correlation between players and TV viewers well before their NFL careers (or lack thereof) played out.
Manziel was polarizing and commanded your eyes. The 2015 NFL Draft had long since been a lock for both Winston and Mariota to go with the first two overall picks. Yet, the quarterback class lacked star power or noteworthy players thereafter.
On the other side of the coin, the biggest TV audience came for the 2020 NFL Draft which was loaded with star power. Burrow entered after one of the greatest college football seasons ever and with a polarizing off-field persona. After Burrow, the question remained as to who would follow him between Tagovailoa and Herbert, while Love was a surprising reach in the first round by the Green Bay Packers.
The most recent draft was widely seen as a weak QB class, and NFL teams apparently thought so as well as only one signal-caller went in the first two rounds (Pickett).
The bottom line on NFL draft TV ratings
Like all things in this arena, there is likely more than one reason why each NFL draft acquires as many viewers as they do. Skill players as a whole likely generate more interest as the layperson doesn’t have as much interest in the trenches as diehard fans do. But it is very clear that quarterbacks drive the biggest audience as the correlation is there.
Whether polarizing characters or terrific on-field prospects, the success of each NFL draft in terms of TV viewers certainly comes down to the pre-draft consensus of the quarterback class. And if that holds true, prepare for some big-time numbers for the 2023 NFL Draft.