Heading into the final week of the fantasy football season, managers are sweating over their Week 18 start/sit decisions. Week 18 is unique because different storylines can lead to various fantasy options emerging or shrinking away based on playoff circumstances. Therefore, we’ll examine the storylines as well as matchup data from the last four weeks to make informed recommendations for Week 18 start ’em and sit ’em options.
Let’s take a look through the options for this week, including Tyler Allgeier, Saquon Barkley, Jahan Dotson, and Diontae Johnson.
Week 18 Fantasy Football Start ’ems
If you’re looking for a way to extend your fantasy season, then Underdog Fantasy can give you that option with their weekly Best Ball drafts. The information below is based on half-PPR data, which is the standard scoring system for Underdog, so these recommendations can also be used when making draft choices this week.
Aaron Rodgers, QB | GB vs. DET
As we mentioned above, the storyline and situations will have to drive a lot of your fantasy decisions this week. One player who is likely to be involved in the full game for his team this week is Aaron Rodgers. The Packers are playing for a playoff spot and will be pushing right to the end, which should mean Rodgers has a chance to be among the top options.
MORE: Week 18 QB Fantasy Football Rankings
Additionally, the Lions have been a reasonably nice matchup for opposing QBs in the past four weeks. In that stretch, they’ve allowed an average of 20.62 fantasy points per game, the seventh-highest number in the league during that stretch. Over the past four weeks, they have not allowed fewer than 16 points to opposing QBs, going over 20 points twice in that time.
Jarrett Stidham, QB | LV @ KC
Jarrett Stidham’s composure in his first career start against one of the toughest defenses in the league was very impressive. He threw for 365 yards with three touchdowns. If it wasn’t for two interceptions, he would have been very close to hitting 30 fantasy points last week. Backing that up will be tough, but the matchup is in Stidham’s favor.
The Chiefs have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs in the past four weeks at 21.02 per game on average. On three of those occasions, the quarterbacks went over 20 fantasy points. Rolling with Stidham is risky, but in Superflex leagues, he could be an intriguing option in a game that could be a shootout.
Zack Moss, RB | IND vs. HOU
In Jonathan Taylor’s absence, Zack Moss has established himself as the No. 1 in Indianapolis. Moss seemed to be a throw-in at the trade deadline in the Bills-Colts swap of Nyheim Hines, but he’s been flourishing. In the last three weeks, Moss has averaged 17 rushing attempts and 73 rushing yards per game.
The matchup this week is extremely enticing. The Houston Texans have allowed an average of 34.73 fantasy points per game to RBs in the last four weeks. Within that stretch are three performances over 35 fantasy points, including 23 points to Travis Etienne Jr. and 17.6 for JaMycal Hasty.
There is scope here for Moss to be a 12-team starting option, especially with other teams considering resting players.
Tyler Allgeier, RB | ATL vs. TB
We’ve seen Tyler Allgeier take control of the Atlanta Falcons backfield since the bye week. He’s averaging 18.3 rushing attempts, two receptions, 98.7 rushing yards, 17.3 receiving yards, and 0.67 touchdowns per game. During that stretch, Allgeier has become a consistent 12-team option, which should continue into this week.
While the matchup with the Buccaneers is not great, there’s a good chance Tampa Bay rests several of their starters. The Falcons are still playing hard, while the Buccaneers have their eyes firmly on their Wild Card Weekend game against either the Dallas Cowboys or Philadelphia Eagles.
Jahan Dotson, WR | WAS vs. DAL
Last week was the first time since Week 12 that Jahan Dotson did not find the end zone. He had a down week with just three receptions for 37 yards from seven targets. The consistent usage over the last few weeks is good to see, especially with an intriguing Week 18 matchup against the Cowboys.
Over the past four weeks, Dallas has been allowing an average of 41.7 fantasy points per game in that stretch. Arguably, the only reason that it’s not higher is because they faced the Joshua Dobbs-led Titans’ offense last week. Even then, they still gave up 28.3 fantasy points to them. There is every chance that Dobbs and the Commanders receivers will be able to have a big day this week.
Darren Waller, TE | LV vs. KC
Understandably, fantasy managers were cautious of Darren Waller in Week 17 with the unknown of Stidham at QB. However, the Raiders’ offense did well, and Waller finished with 14.7 fantasy points in half-PPR scoring.
This week, he gets a matchup with the Chiefs, who have allowed more than 17 fantasy points per game on average to tight ends in the past three weeks.
Week 18 Fantasy Football Sit ’ems
Deshaun Watson, QB | CLE @ PIT
You may look at Deshaun Watson’s output from last week and think he’s back after a 20+ point performance and three passing touchdowns. However, Watson’s line around the three touchdowns was mediocre. He completed just nine of his 18 pass attempts for 169 yards.
Additionally, the Steelers have been a really tough matchup in the past four weeks. They’ve allowed an average of just 8.98 fantasy points per game in that stretch, with more than 10 points to the position just once in that stretch.
Saquon Barkley, RB | NYG at PHI
This is less about the matchup and more about the fact that I’m not sure Saquon Barkley plays much this week, if at all. The Giants are locked into the sixth seed this week, and there is nothing to be gained by putting more touches and miles on the bodies of their star players.
MORE: Matt Breida Is a Considerable Option Off the Week 18 Waiver Wire
Barkley’s performances have been up and down in recent weeks, and he could benefit greatly from a limited workload. The tough part for fantasy managers will be if Barkley is active and set to start the game. There is every chance we see the Giants get Barkley a few touches before sitting him to preserve him for their Wild Card Weekend game.
Diontae Johnson, WR | PIT vs. CLE
The Cleveland Browns’ defense has been really good in recent weeks. Granted, one of those was a weather-affected game against the Saints, but even so, Cleveland has only allowed an average of nine fantasy points per game to wide receivers in the past three games.
Meanwhile, Diontae Johnson has been a frustrating player to roster. Despite 14 targets in the past two games, Johnson has just 99 receiving yards and seven receptions in that stretch. It’s hard for me to imagine putting my fantasy championship in the hands of Kenny Pickett.
Jerry Jeudy, WR | DEN vs. LAC
It was a weird week for Jerry Jeudy on Sunday as he turned seven receptions into just 38 receiving yards. While Denver’s offense looked better, the Broncos did not use Jeudy in a typically big-play manner. It could be injury related or a shift in philosophy with a new coach, but it’s tough to be sure about the long-term implications.
Now, the Broncos face a Chargers defense that has been really good against opposing receivers. LA has restricted the position to an average of just 10.57 fantasy points per game in the last three weeks. With uncertainty over the way Denver’s offense may look in their second game post-Nathaniel Hackett, it’s tough to trust any of the receivers in Week 18.