Fantasy football is more than just the weekly head-to-head games we’ve all grown to love. On Underdog, fantasy managers can put their player-projection skills to the test by predicting player stat lines. Here are my top plays for Underdog’s Week 17 Pick’em contest.
Top Underdog Pick’ems for Week 17 Sunday Games
Underdog Pick’ems allow fantasy managers to predict stat lines and fantasy-point totals for almost all fantasy-relevant players. You can make two picks that pay out 3x even money or add more selections to your entry for higher payouts.
The levels are 3x, 6x, 10x, and 20x, progressing with each additional pick’em you add to your entry. Let’s take a look at this week’s NFL pick’ems.
Jakobi Meyers Lower Than 9.65 Fantasy Points
I like where Underdog put this projection because it’s just high enough to where the lower is a smart play.
Jakobi Meyers scored 17.3 fantasy points last week, but more than half of them came on a flukey deflection touchdown reception.
MORE: Wharton’s Start ’em Sit ’em Week 17
In his previous five games, Meyers didn’t come close to 9.65 fantasy points. Week 2 is the only game in which he got there without a touchdown, so this really comes down to whether Meyers catches a touchdown. I’m willing to say he won’t.
Kareem Hunt Lower Than 35.5 Rush + Receiving Yards
I don’t think many backup running backs are pushing 40 total yards every week. Kareem Hunt continues to be treated like he is more than Nick Chubb’s backup, despite two months of evidence to the contrary.
For some reason, the Browns relegated Hunt to a backup role in Week 6. Since then, he’s gone lower than this number in seven of 10 games. That’s enough for me.
Brian Robinson Higher Than 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns
I am just so sure Brian Robinson is scoring this week. Everything is set up perfectly for Robinson to smash.
The Browns have a bottom-five run defense, so the Washington Commanders should lean on the run. Cleveland has allowed 15 rushing touchdowns the season, the second-most in the league.
Antonio Gibson is out, which means even more work for Robinson, and the game script shouldn’t get away from the Commanders, forcing them to abandon the run. It’s just a great spot.
Jahan Dotson Higher Than 41.5 Receiving Yards
Carson Wentz is back under center for the Commanders this season. In all but one Wentz start, Jahan Dotson has reached 42 receiving yards.
Dotson had a brief stretch of poor production as he was working his way back up to game speed when he returned from his nearly two-month-long injury. Since Week 13, Dotson has reached at least 54 receiving yards in every game. I think he does it again.
Trevor Lawrence Lower Than 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
The Houston Texans have arguably the worst team in the NFL. But that doesn’t necessarily make this an easy matchup.
Trevor Lawrence has really thrived against pass funnel defenses, and in games where he has to keep up with an opposing offense. This week, we have neither of those things.
The Texans have the worst run defense in the NFL, which should allow the Jaguars to pound Travis Etienne Jr. Additionally, their pass defense isn’t all that bad.
When these teams last met, Lawrence attempted 47 passes, his highest mark of the season, but he didn’t throw a single touchdown. I don’t think he throws a touchdown his week, either.
Nick Foles Lower Than 11.25 Fantasy Points
I had to do a double-take when I saw this number. 11.25! How exactly is Nick Foles getting to 11.25 fantasy points?
He can get there without a touchdown if he throws for over 225 yards without turning it over. That seems unlikely. Otherwise, he has to throw a touchdown. Did you watch Foles play football last week? Does he look like a quarterback capable of throwing a touchdown in the NFL?
Foles looked completely lost in the pocket. He completed 17 of 29 passes for 143 scoreless yards and three interceptions. The man took seven sacks.
Some progression is to be expected in Foles’ second start (he can’t be worse), but the New York Giants are actually a tougher matchup than the Los Angeles Chargers. I’m banking on Foles face-planting once again. I think there’s a real chance we see Sam Ehlinger in this one.
Daniel Jones Lower Than 211.5 Passing Yards
Over the past several weeks, the Colts have really become a run-funnel defense. Last week, the Giants needed Daniel Jones to air it out against an awful Minnesota Vikings’ pass defense. This week, we should see a heavy dose of Saquon Barkley.
The Giants are touchdown home favorites. They should be able to control this game relatively comfortably. Jones just needs to manage the game.
MORE: RB Injury Report Week 17
Jones has thrown for more than 211 yards in just four games this season. Colts’ opponents attempt downfield throws just 12.4% of the time, the second-lowest rate in the league.
It would take something catastrophic for the Giants to end up in a position where they have to abandon the run. I don’t see it happening. As a result, Jones should stay well below this number.
Tom Brady Lower Than 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Fading Tom Brady is just so much fun. Every week, Brady proves he’s nothing more than a back-end NFL starter. Yet, we still get projections on Brady as if he’s a competent starting quarterback.
Brady has made 15 starts this season, and he’s thrown multiple touchdowns in just five of them. I like those odds.
When the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers last played, Brady threw for 290 scoreless yards. The Bucs scored three points.
While I expect them to score more than three points this time around, I have little faith in Brady to do more than throw a series of inaccurate passes, hoping for something to happen. If they do happen to score more than one touchdown, hopefully, at least one is on the ground.
Rachaad White Lower Than 37.5 Rushing Yards
Fantasy managers really want Rachaad White to be better than Leonard Fournette. Unfortunately, he just isn’t. Of course, players are allowed to get better, but the rookie version of White is just not an NFL-caliber running back.
White’s yards created per touch is outside the top 30. His evaded tackles per touch rate is outside the top 40. He’s run for 15 or more yards on a single carry just four times all season, a 3.5% rate, which is outside the top 40.
The Panthers’ season-long numbers against running backs aren’t good, but they’ve played much better over the past few weeks.
When these teams last played, White carried the ball six times for 24 yards. Fournette wasn’t any better, with eight carries for 19 yards. Yes, we are fading both the passing game and the running game in this one. The Bucs just make it too easy by being so incredibly inefficient.
DJ Chark Higher Than 46.5 Receiving Yards
We were on DJ Chark’s higher last week, and it was one of the easiest hits of the season. The number was in the low 30s. He went higher on his first reception.
This week, Underdog has correctly adjusted Chark’s projection upward. Good, but not enough. Over his past four games, Chark has totaled at least 94 receiving yards in three of them. His only failure came against the Jets and Sauce Gardner.
MORE: WR Injury Report Week 17
In every game where Chark has played at least 74% of the snaps, he’s totaled at least 46 receiving yards.
The Bears allow a 44.9% completion percentage on downfield throws, and Chark is Jared Goff’s downfield threat. He will probably need more than one reception to hit this number this time, but I’m confident he gets there.
Geno Smith Lower Than 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Geno Smith threw multiple passing touchdowns in 11 of his first 13 games. He was both impressive and efficient. Since then, things have gotten worse. And they’re not about to improve against the Jets’ elite pass defense.
The Jets allow 0.9 passing touchdowns per game, the fewest in the NFL. Joe Burrow is the only quarterback to throw multiple touchdown passes against them. I don’t think Smith becomes the second.
My Underdog Entry
While I believe in all of these picks and would play them all straight if I could, here is my entry with those I feel most confident in.
