If you’re looking for Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills Monday Night Football DFS picks in Week 17, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Bengals Considerations
In what might be a preview of a higher-stakes playoff matchup in the AFC Divisional or Championship round, Cincinnati has a healthy collection of playmakers for the first time in a while. Although Hayden Hurst is no more than the fourth or fifth option, his return augments what’s already one of the league’s highest-powered offenses.
That’s also a problem as we craft our DFS lineup. Because in a game featuring a dozen or more guys with realistic double-digit-points upside, how do we narrow them down to the six “best” players — a group that can dominate while simultaneously falling within the salary cap?
The opposing Bills are not as frightening on defense as they were last year. Presumably, Cincy will break through. The question is, should we invest heavily in their bell cow? Or do we trust their passing game to do enough to merit significant investments?
Another concern: it’s hard to anticipate the likeliest game scripts. So we don’t know if Joe Mixon will be just as active in the fourth quarter as he was in the first — or even more active. Or will Joe Burrow be forced to throw more than usual against an opponent that can score in buckets?
Bills Considerations
Buffalo is also relatively healthy, and the rapid development of rookie James Cook has helped transform their running game. Remember last year when Matt Breida took a turn as their lead back? Yeah, much has changed.
The question here is whether Josh Allen will target Devin Singletary and/or Cook. Singletary’s earned more than two catches only once since Week 10 and exceeded two receptions only once all year. RBs are averaging only 3.9 yards per carry against the Bengals.
So choosing between Singletary and Cook presents risks. What if we choose the wrong one? And is it possible that both are highly TD-dependent in a somewhat unfavorable matchup?
Through the air, we’ll also need to choose among a wide swath of receivers, which has grown bigger with the recent signing of Cole Beasley.
Top NFL DFS Picks for MNF
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Captain: WR Gabe Davis, Bills ($9,600)
If we go with a safer-floor option like Josh Allen or Joe Burrow, we’ll need to downgrade significantly somewhere else. Paying a premium for Gabe Davis gives us more financial flexibility.
And yes, I understand the risks. Last Thursday, I pushed Dalton Schultz in DFS and prop bets in the belief the Cowboys needed to get him going ahead of the postseason. Because a CeeDee-Lamb-or-bust passing attack made them more vulnerable against tough playoff defenses.
Similarly, I believe the Bills must get Davis going. We’ve seen him obliterate defenses. A 25+ point performance is entirely doable. The question is whether, in a packed receiving corps, Allen will look for Davis more. I’m betting he will.
Flex: QB Josh Allen, Bills ($11,400)
Of course. Benching the most statistically dominant player in the game cannot be rationalized.
Flex: QB Joe Burrow, Bengals ($10,800)
Again, “of course.” The preseason QB7 in fantasy was one of my favorite bets to exceed expectations and produce elite numbers. He’s currently the QB4 despite not having key assets for multiple games. His ceiling remains sky-high, even against Buffalo.
Flex: WR Tee Higgins, Bengals ($9,800)
Ja’Marr Chase is priced a little too high ($10,400), as he would require us to downgrade elsewhere. Since the summer, I’ve viewed him and Tee Higgins as comparably valued. Yes, Chase has the weekly upside edge. But in any given game, Higgins can outproduce him, and 16+ points is always within reach.
Flex: TE Dawson Knox, Bills ($4,800)
Three straight games with a TD. But I’d push him in this lineup even if he’d gone scoreless. Dawson Knox has the second-best catch rate among the top-10 fantasy TE. He was an underutilized (and sometimes injured) resource for weeks. Cincy’s yielding the seventh most TE receptions. Knox should continue to get attention.
Flex: TE Hayden Hurst, Bengals ($3,000)
With $3,600 remaining, we’re going with the ultra-cheap Hurst. Before his injury, he was consistently priced 50%-60% higher. We can afford him because . . . well, because that’s often how DFS works. Hurst has solid upside at a cheap price.
Whatever you decide, good luck tonight.