If you’re looking for Tennessee Titans vs. Dallas Cowboys Thursday Night Football NFL DFS picks in Week 17, you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Titans Considerations
If you’re familiar with these columns, you know I don’t play things safe. One well-timed flier can help us win big. Inversely, so can one bold fade.
I’m writing this on Wednesday evening. Derrick Henry’s status for this game remains unknown to the general public. And I hope he starts because I want competitors to invest in someone I’m completely ignoring.
Normally a nearly automatic DFS start, Henry is the ultimate high-risk, low-reward option in what amounts to an almost meaningless game for the flailing Titans. If they lose tonight and beat the Jaguars next weekend, they’ll secure the AFC’s No. 4 seed — not bad for a franchise mired in a five-game losing streak.
Smart people point out that a Titans loss and Jaguars win this week would hand the AFC South title to Jacksonville if they tie next week. Similarly, a Titans win and a Jags loss would give Tennessee the division title if they tie next week.
But I would submit that the odds of a heavily utilized Henry getting hurt tonight are higher than a Week 18 tie. Essentially, Tennessee’s highest-probability path to reaching the playoffs entails keeping their all-world talent healthy for the only game that truly matters.
With green QB Josh Dobbs replacing the similarly green Malik Willis under center, facing a tough Cowboys defense and with a pass defense yielding the second-most passing yards, the Titans are long shots to keep this one close. That means whichever Titan player (yes, only one player) we add to this DFS lineup needs to be cheap so we can maximize our ceiling with some of the Cowboys’ top playmakers.
Cowboys Considerations
The biggest risk to Dallas is overconfidence. We might have witnessed it in their Week 10 loss to Green Bay when they surrendered a two-touchdown fourth-quarter lead. It also might have happened in their Week 15 loss to Jacksonville, when they blew a 17-point lead.
But normally, with Dak Prescott under center, this team has been nearly unbeatable. In the last 16 regular-season games he’s started and finished (i.e. not including Week 1’s injury departure), three of their four losses were in overtime. They’ve averaged 35.1 points per game during that stretch. That’s offensive-juggernaut territory.
Given the Titans’ weakness through the air, we should lean into Dallas’s passing attack. We also might consider the possibility that the Cowboys’ defense and/or special teams could wreak havoc on a flailing Tennessee franchise that might not-so-surreptitiously throw in the towel by halftime — if not sooner — to maximize their chances of winning next weekend.
NFL DFS Picks for TNF on DraftKings
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Captain: QB Dak Prescott, Cowboys ($15,900)
As always, there are dozens of reasonable approaches to crafting a DFS lineup. I’m choosing two that assume a comfortable Dallas victory versus an overmatched opponent. It also assumes Henry and Tony Pollard will be either out or limited.
In both lineups, Prescott will be our Captain. He has a fantastic floor and a 30+ point ceiling in a favorable matchup against a weak Tennessee secondary.
Flex: WR CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys ($11,400)
CeeDee Lamb also belongs in both lineups. In nine full contests with Prescott this season, he’s collected a sterling 58-798-6 receiving line on 76 targets. Those aren’t quite per-game Justin Jefferson numbers, but they’re close enough to merit must-start status in DFS slates.
Flex: RB Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys ($8,800)
This marks our first crossroads. Can Ezekiel Elliott break through against an elite defense? If he scores at least once, sure. That’s the question, particularly if Pollard sits or is limited.
In our other lineup, we’re replacing Elliott with Hassan Haskins ($3,000). This assumes the game is a bit closer than anticipated, with Haskins surprisingly racking up 80+ total yards.
Flex: TE Dalton Schultz, Cowboys ($6,600)
Despite his relatively muted numbers, Dalton Schultz leads his team with 15 red-zone targets. Dallas might face two or more tough defenses in the postseason. They’ll need to prepare for the possibility that Lamb or their backfield could be contained.
Schultz is a prime candidate to get even more attention as the Cowboys prepare for the playoffs. He belongs in both of our DFS lineups.
Flex: Cowboys D/ST ($5,800)
So far, we have Prescott-Lamb-Elliott-Schultz in one lineup and Prescott-Lamb-Davis-Schultz in the other. Now things get a bit more interesting.
One lineup assumes Dallas shuts down an offense ranked only 27th in scoring — and that’s with Henry. It also assumes Dobbs wilts in the face of a top-five defense that’s No. 3 in the league with 49 sacks and tied for fifth with 14 interceptions.
The other lineup eyes Dobbs ($6,000) mustering 160+ total yards and a score against a team that might play more prevent defense in the second half while protecting a big lead. No doubt, Dobbs is a huge risk. At the same time, we have to pick at least one Titan. If he outproduces Elliott, the move could pay dividends.
Flex: WR Chris Conley, Titans ($1,200)
Finally, in the Prescott-Lamb-Elliott-Schultz-Cowboys lineup, we need one Tennessee player. With $1,500 remaining, let’s roll with the speedy Chris Conley, who might have his team’s best chance at a 40+ yard touchdown.
In the Prescott-Lamb-Haskins-Schultz-Dobbs lineup, we have $7,300 remaining. The hit-or-miss Michael Gallup ($7,000) gets the call. He’s earned 6+ targets in seven of his last 10 outings and has three scores in his last four games. If Dallas breaks this game open, there will be enough room for Lamb, Schultz, and Gallup to shine.
Whatever you decide, good luck tonight.