A month ago, the Miami Dolphins were 8-3 and looked like a lock for the postseason, and they even had a shot at the No. 1 seed in the AFC. But following a four-game losing streak, their playoff chances have taken a serious hit. The Dolphins’ playoff scenarios will only get more difficult if Miami opts to shut down Tua Tagovailoa for the rest of the year.
Let’s take a look at the rest of the Dolphins’ schedule and determine what needs to happen over the final two weeks of the 2022 season in order for Miami to enter the postseason.
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Much like what happened through the month of December, the Dolphins found a way to lose, dropping their contest against the New England Patriots 21-23. Now, after losing five-straight games, Miami has to win next week against the New York Jets and hope the Buffalo Bills can handle their business against the Patriots. If that happens, the Dolphins flop their way into the 2023 NFL playoffs.
Miami Dolphins Playoff Scenarios To Watch for in Week 17
There are three ways for the Dolphins to earn a playoff spot over the next two weeks. The easiest is for Miami to win out by defeating the New England Patriots in Week 17 and the New York Jets in Week 18. If Mike McDaniel’s squad can come away with victories in both of those games, they’ll get in as a Wild Card team.
Additionally, one of the Dolphins’ playoff scenarios includes a path to clinching this weekend. If Miami beats New England and the Jets lose to Seattle, the Dolphins would secure the final AFC Wild Card berth.
All is not lost if the Dolphins lose to the Patriots on Sunday, but they would need some help from a division rival in order to get into the postseason. In that scenario, Miami would have to beat the Jets in Week 18 and hope that the Buffalo Bills can defeat the Patriots on that same final Sunday.
On the flip side, the Dolphins will miss the playoffs if they lose out. If Miami loses to the Patriots and Jets over the next two weeks, they’ll have no path to the postseason and will open things up for either New England or New York to enter the tournament.
Meanwhile, if the Dolphins lose to the Patriots in Week 17 and New England also wins in Week 18, Bill Belichick and Co. will claim the final AFC Wild Card spot. If Miami loses to the Jets in Week 18 and New York also wins in Week 17, that spot will go to Gang Green.
While the Jets and Patriots are only in contention for the AFC’s seventh seed, the Dolphins are still in play for seed Nos. 5, 6, and 7, depending on how the rest of the year shakes out.
What Are the Dolphins’ Playoff Chances?
Before Week 13, FiveThirtyEight gave the Dolphins a 90% chance to make the playoffs. But following losses to the 49ers, Chargers, Bills, and Packers, Miami’s odds are down to just 62%.
The Dolphins can’t win the AFC East, and because the Chargers and Bengals/Ravens will take two of the AFC’s three Wild Card slots, there’s only one AFC playoff berth remaining. Miami has the best playoff chances of any of the AFC Wild Card contenders, and they control their own destiny over the remaining two games of the year.