With two NFC divisions already wrapped up, NFC Wild Card elimination scenarios will dominate Week 17 of the NFL schedule. With so many teams competing for what will likely be the NFC’s seventh seed, several clubs will be fighting for their playoff lives.
Let’s run through each of the NFC teams still alive in the postseason race and determine how they could be formally eliminated this weekend.
Current NFC Wild Card Standings
The Cowboys have already clinched a playoff berth, while FiveThirtyEight gives the Giants a 91% chance to make the playoffs. Thus, the rest of the teams in contention are realistically competing for one Wild Card spot.
5. x-Dallas Cowboys (12-4)
6. New York Giants (8-6-1)
7. Washington Commanders (7-7-1)
8. Seattle Seahawks (7-8)
9. Detroit Lions (7-8)
10. Green Bay Packers (7-8)
11. Carolina Panthers (6-9)
12. New Orleans Saints (6-9)
x = Clinched playoff berth
NFC Wild Card Elimination Scenarios for 6 Teams
All of these teams still have viable paths to a playoff berth, but they also face potential elimination in Week 17.
Washington Commanders
With a 7-5 record entering Week 12, the Commanders looked like the favorites to land the final Wild Card slot in the NFC. But two losses and a tie over their last three games have tanked Washington’s postseason hopes.
Here’s how they can be eliminated this weekend:
- Commanders lose, Lions win, and Packers win
Following Taylor Heinicke’s recent struggles, Washington will turn back to Carson Wentz when they travel to Cleveland in Week 17. If Wentz can deliver a victory, the Commanders can stave off elimination for at least one more week.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks have dropped five of six and are back below .500 for the first time since Week 3. While Seattle can still make the playoffs, they could also get ruled out on Sunday via the following paths:
- Seahawks lose and Commanders win
- Seahawks lose, Lions win, and Packers win/tie
- Seahawks lose, Lions tie, and Packers win
Seattle could also be eliminated via two unlikely scenarios which involve multiple ties. Geno Smith and Co. are currently two-point home underdogs to the Jets in Week 17.
Detroit Lions
While the Lions had won six of seven heading into Week 16, a brutal loss to the Panthers tanked their postseason chances. Detroit could be eliminated as soon as Week 17 if the following occurs:
- Lions lose and Commanders win
The Lions are six-point home favorites against the Bears on Sunday. If they can take down Chicago, Detroit will then face a crucial Week 18 game against the Packers.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers have won three straight to re-insert themselves into the postseason conversation, but their playoff chances are still tenuous at best.
Here’s how Green Bay could be eliminated this weekend:
- Packers lose and Lions win
- OR Packers lose and Commanders win
- OR Packers lose, Commanders tie, Seahawks lose, and Saints lose/tie
- OR Packers tie, Commanders win, and Seahawks lose
The Packers will be a 3.5-point home favorite against the Vikings despite being five games back of Minnesota in the NFC North. If the Packers lose, they’ll have to hope that both Detroit and Washington are defeated, too.
Carolina Panthers
Unlike the other teams on this list, the Panthers can no longer win a Wild Card spot. However, they could make the playoffs by winning out and taking the NFC South crown.
On the other hand, their path to Week 17 elimination is straightforward: if the Panthers lose to the Buccaneers on Sunday, they’re out of playoff contention entirely. Carolina will be three-point road underdogs in Tampa Bay.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints’ most viable postseason route involves winning the NFC South. That path will disappear on Sunday if the following occurs:
- Saints lose
- Saints tie and Buccaneers tie
- Buccaneers win
However, unlike Carolina, New Orleans also has a chance to make the playoffs as a Wild Card team. It’s a very narrow path, and the Saints can also be eliminated altogether in Week 17:
- Saints lose
- Buccaneers win and Commanders win
- Buccaneers win, Lions win, and Packers win/tie
- Buccaneers win, Packers win, and Lions tie
There are also five scenarios involving a Saints tie which would knock them out of the playoffs. New Orleans is a 6.5-point road underdog against the Eagles, who will likely be without Jalen Hurts for the second consecutive week.