As the NFL turns the page to Week 17, AFC Wild Card elimination scenarios will come into play. With two Wild Card berths already wrapped up, only one non-AFC South champion spot remains available in the AFC. Which teams could see their season come to a close this weekend?
Current AFC Wild Card Standings
The Ravens have already secured a playoff berth, as they’ll make the dance either as the AFC North winners or as a Wild Card squad. The Chargers can’t overtake the Chiefs in the AFC West, but they’ve already clinched a postseason entry.
Here’s how the AFC Wild Card standings look ahead of Week 17:
5. x-Baltimore Ravens (10-5)
6. x-Los Angeles Chargers (9-6)
7. Miami Dolphins (8-7)
8. New England Patriots (7-8)
9. New York Jets (7-8)
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-8)
11. Tennessee Titans (7-9)
12. Las Vegas Raiders (6-9)
x = Clinched playoff berth
AFC Wild Card Elimination Scenarios for 4 Teams
Four teams can be eliminated from postseason contention in Week 17. Let’s run through the four clubs in question and assess how their campaign could end this weekend.
New England Patriots
Following back-to-back losses to the Raiders and Bengals, the Patriots are below .500 for the first time since Week 7. While they can still make the playoffs, New England can be eliminated from the postseason via the following Week 17 scenarios:
- Patriots lose
- OR Patriots tie and Jets win
- OR Patriots tie and Jets lose
The Patriots control their own playoff destiny, but they’ll have to win out against the Dolphins and Bills to make the postseason. A loss in either game would eliminate New England from the tournament.
With Tua Tagovailoa out for Miami on Sunday, the Patriots are three-point home favorites against the Dolphins at DraftKings Sportsbook. However, they will be road underdogs against Buffalo in Week 18.
New York Jets
The Jets are in an even more dire position than the Patriots. With four straight losses on their ledger, New York has to win out and get help over the next two weeks in order to qualify for the playoffs.
At 7-8, Robert Saleh’s club could be eliminated as soon as this weekend via the following paths:
- Jets lose
- OR Jets tie and Dolphins win
In Week 17, the Jets are the slight road favorites over the Seahawks, who are fighting for their playoff lives in the NFC. If they can beat Seattle, Gang Green will need to take down the Dolphins in Week 18 to keep their postseason hopes alive.
Pittsburgh Steelers
No Mike Tomlin-led team has ever finished with a losing record, but the Steelers need to win out in order to go 9-8 in 2022. More likely, Pittsburgh can be eliminated in Week 17 if any of the following occurs:
- Steelers lose
- OR Steelers tie and Jets win/tie
- OR Steelers tie and Dolphins tie
- OR Dolphins win
- OR Dolphins tie and Jets win
The Steelers will be three-point road underdogs against the Ravens in a game that has been flexed to Sunday night. Baltimore has already clinched a playoff spot, but Pittsburgh will get their best effort in Week 17 because the Ravens are still fighting for the AFC North crown.
Las Vegas Raiders
With their playoff path nearly gone, the Raiders are benching Derek Carr for financial reasons. Making a spot start in Week 17 would be a tough ask for any quarterback, but it will be especially difficult for Jarrett Stidham, given that he’ll have to face the 49ers’ staunch defense.
Here’s how the Raiders can be eliminated this week:
- Raiders lose
- OR Dolphins win/tie
- OR Jets win/tie
Unless Stidham can miraculously defeat San Francisco as a nine-point underdog, Las Vegas’ playoff odds will be reduced to nil in Week 17.