The 2022 season has been a roller coaster ride in Carolina. Despite all of the turmoil, the postseason is within reach. The Carolina Panthers’ playoff scenarios are quite clear, and it all centers around a huge game on Sunday in Tampa Bay.
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With their loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Panthers’ hopes to make the NFL playoffs are no more. They’ll finish their season next week against the New Orleans Saints.
Panthers Playoff Scenarios To Watch for in Week 17
For the Panthers, the playoff implications of Sunday’s game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are black and white: if they lose to the Bucs, their season is over. If they leave Tampa with a victory, the Panthers would head into Week 18 simply needing a win over the New Orleans Saints to clinch the NFC South division and reach the playoffs for the first time since 2017.
While Carolina controls their own playoff destiny — two wins in their final two games will clinch the division title and the fourth seed in the NFC playoffs — there is one other Panthers playoff scenario in Week 18 should they lose to the Saints after defeating the Bucs this week.
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If the Panthers defeat the Bucs but lose in Week 18 to the Saints, they still can win the NFC South if the Saints lose to the Eagles in Week 17 AND the Bucs lose to the Falcons in Week 18. Under this scenario, all three would be 7-10, and the Panthers would win the division based on tiebreakers.
But make no mistake, the clearest of the Panthers’ playoff scenarios is winning their final two games.
What Are the Panthers’ Playoff Chances?
According to FiveThirtyEight, the Panthers’ playoff chances stand at just 29%, presumably because the Panthers are currently three-point underdogs at most sportsbooks in their Week 17 must-win game at Tampa Bay. At Draftkings Sportsbook, the Panthers’ odds of winning the NFC South are currently +300.
That said, it’s still remarkable that the Panthers find themselves in control of their own destiny just two months after firing head coach Matt Rhule. The Panthers parted ways with Rhule when the team was 1-4. Under interim head coach Steve Wilks, the Panthers have gone 5-5 to put themselves in position to earn a postseason berth.
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If the Panthers defeat the Buccaneers on Sunday, their playoff chances increase to 64%, needing only to win at New Orleans in Week 18 to lock up the NFC South.
Since their bye week in Week 13, the Panthers have won two of their three games, with both wins coming against teams competing for NFC playoff spots. Carolina knocked off the Seahawks in Seattle coming off their bye. Then, following an eight-point loss to the Steelers, Carolina came back last week and defeated the surging Detroit Lions by 14 points to keep their playoff hopes alive.