If you’re planning to make NFL prop bets for this thrilling Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills Week 17 matchup on Monday Night Football, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated and which could fall short of expectations.
All prop bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, or FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000.
Top Bengals vs. Bills Player Props To Target
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
These recommended bets assume the Bills will beat the Bengals by a rough score of 29-24. Cincinnati’s underrated defense has yielded more than 24 points to only three teams this season: the Saints, Browns, and Steelers. All three took place on the road.
So picking Buffalo to win with 29 points is far from an obvious prediction. These are the same Bengals that held the Chiefs to 24 points, the Cowboys to 20, and the Lamar-Jackson-led Ravens to 19.
But the Bills no longer have an elite defense. Yes, they’re comfortably outperforming Cincy in sacks and are edging them in takeaways and points yielded. But they’re no longer a fearsome unit, and clearly, the loss of Von Miller didn’t help.
So I’m anticipating that Josh Allen will need to throw deep into this game, keeping pace with a vaunted Bengals offense that can’t easily be contained when operating at full strength.
Something to consider: both teams have plenty to play for. Each remains in the hunt for the AFC’s No. 1 seed (and a first-round bye in the playoffs). Tonight should have the feel of a postseason game. The ramifications are that big.
Joe Burrow Player Props
How do you defeat the Bills? Well, establishing the run will be key. While that doesn’t come close to guaranteeing success against Buffalo’s top-10 run defense, I doubt the Bengals want this game to turn into strictly a passing contest.
I’m betting Joe Burrow finds success, but not necessarily monster success; 250-260 yards and a couple of scores are realistic.
- Pass attempts under 38.5
(-105) — BetMGM - Passing yards under 286.5
(-115) — DraftKings - Passing touchdowns over 1.5
(-174) — FanDuel
Joe Mixon Player Props
If Cincy doesn’t establish the run, in all likelihood, it will be because they’re losing — possibly badly.
MORE: Bills vs. Bengals Prediction, Odds, and Picks for Week 17
I’m anticipating a close contest, with Joe Mixon continuing to operate as a volume-friendly bell cow. Although inefficient running has kept him below 3.5 yards per carry in an astounding eight outings, the Bengals certainly recognize that they need to keep finding ways to get him going.
- Rushing yards under 50.5
(-114) — FanDuel
Josh Allen Player Props
Allen has surpassed 253 passing yards only twice in his last nine games. Six of those contests were decided by a touchdown or less.
In other words, Allen hasn’t needed to throw the ball as much as he did, say, last season. His backfield is as good as it’s ever been during his career, and he remains an elite dual-threat QB. Surely, Allen can throw for 200-220 tonight. But will he need to throw for more to win?
- Passing yards under 260.5
(-115) — DraftKings - Passing touchdowns over 1.5
(-140) — FanDuel
James Cook Player Props
James Cook might be Buffalo’s lead back next season. Who knows? He might even move into the 1A role by the playoffs.
Despite inexplicably sporadic usage on the ground and through the air, the rookie’s blistering 5.8 yards per carry reinforces what he brings to the table. If he gets even middling volume (10-12 touches), he should crush his props.
- Rushing yards over 26.5
(-120) — DraftKings - Receiving yards over 10.5
(-110) — BetMGM
Gabe Davis Player Props
Is there a tougher receiver to figure out than Gabe Davis? In his final game of the 2021 campaign — that incredible playoff loss to the Chiefs — he went off for eight receptions, 201 receiving yards, and four touchdowns against Kansas City. The performance suggested Davis would be a featured fixture in Buffalo’s elite offense.
Instead, he’s been only marginally better than last season while enduring the worst catch rate of his career. Not coincidentally, Davis has a career-worst 8.4% drop rate.
MORE: Bengals vs. Bills Monday Night Football DFS Picks
But he’s still only 23 years old. Stefon Diggs is the clear No. 1 WR, and Davis still maintains his No. 2 status. Isaiah McKenzie, despite his heroics, does not come close to Davis’ ceiling.
I believe the Bills need to figure out how to get Davis going before the postseason. He’s too valuable to this offense — too essential to Buffalo’s pursuit of a Super Bowl.
- Receptions over 3.5
(+120) — DraftKings - Receiving yards over 44.5
(-113) — FanDuel