This Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals prediction is the crème de la crème of NFL matchups. There are three thoroughbreds in the AFC: the Kansas City Chiefs and these two teams. There is no question that the Chiefs have been the best team in the NFL over the last four years. The Bills played them in one of the best games ever in last year’s postseason, and the Bengals beat them in that same postseason to advance to the Super Bowl.
Both teams have beaten the Chiefs this season.
This game could very well decide the number one seed in the AFC. Not only do we get an incredible late-season matchup, but we also get a great game with intriguing value on the Bills vs. Bengals odds based on the Behavior Bets sports betting model projection.
Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals Prediction and Odds | Week 17
- Spread: Bills -1.5
- Moneyline: Bills -120
- Over/Under: Over 50.0*
*The Behavior Bets model predicts a score totaling 50 points even. Due to the non-existent margin, I did not personally place a bet on the over/under for this game.
Bills vs. Bengals Prediction
The Behavior Bets sports betting model started Week 17 4-0 thanks to Thursday Night Football, including wins on the moneyline, against the spread, over/under, and player props. For the season, the model is 123-54-6* on bets against the spread, on the moneyline, and in player props. Let’s see if we can keep it going starting with this Buffalo vs. Cincinnati prediction.
*Stats on the Behavior Bets model can be tracked at Pikkit, the best bet-tracking app on the market.
Josh Allen vs. Joe Burrow. Bills vs. Bengals. These two teams spent the better part of two-plus decades being the butt-end of jokes. Since they found their two young stud quarterbacks, however, no one is laughing at them now. In fact, it’s more often the opposite.
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The Bills’ offense is in the top 10 in scoring behavior rate this season. At .88 points per minute of possession time, Buffalo sits seventh in the NFL. While the average is impressive, the trend is perhaps more so.
Since their bye week, the Bills have been increasing their scoring behavior rate by 19% week over week. That’s the fastest growth in the NFL by any team this season with a quarterback who has started a minimum of nine games.
They will face an unspectacular Bengals defense. It isn’t that the Bengals’ defense is bad, they’re simply mediocre, landing slightly above league average. They average giving up .698 points per minute of opponent possession time. That’s good enough for 14th in the NFL.
The good thing for Cincinnati is they don’t allow their opponents much possession time when at home. They are second-best in the league behind the 49ers in possession time allowed at home, limiting opponents to 26 minutes and 22 seconds with the ball.
The Behavior Bets model predicts the Bills to score an average of 26.27 points across likely possibilities.
The Bengals’ offense will get a shot to hold the ball and aid the defense in keeping it out of Josh Allen’s hands. In fact, I project the Bengals to lead in time of possession. Cincinnati sits just outside the top 10 in scoring behavior rate with an average of .779 points per minute of possession time. That’s good enough for 12th in the NFL.
Since Week 1, the Bengals’ offense has grown by nine percent in scoring behavior rate, meaning week over a week, they can expect to be about nine percent better than they were the week before. They’ll need that nine percent this week because they will be facing one of the best defenses in the NFL.
Buffalo had such a dominating start to the season on defense, but they were heading into their bye week trending in the wrong direction. That trend continued over the first four games coming out of the bye week as well. Even with their troubles, however, they never gave up more than .8 points per minute of opponent possession time.
In three of their last four games, the team has gone back to the domination we saw in the first three weeks of 2022. They held opponents to under .5 points per minute of possession time in those games. The exception was against the Miami Dolphins, who, at the time, were the second-fastest scoring team in the NFL.
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Buffalo is no slouch on the road, either. They rank seventh in the NFL in time of possession allowed on the road, letting opponents have the ball for 28 minutes and 56 seconds. In their last three road games, that mark is even less at 27 minutes and 9 seconds.
The Behavior Bets model predicts the Bengals to score an average of 23.8 points across all likely possibilities.
This one has the potential to be a classic.
Bills vs. Bengals Prediction
Bills 27, Bengals 24