Let’s get down to the nitty-gritty and get this show on the road. In our NFL Week 17 Predictions and Picks column, we break down all the big matchups in what will be a hugely consequential weekend of football.
With just 32 total games left in the 2022 NFL regular season, three-quarters of the league still has a chance, no matter how small, of lifting the Lombardi Trophy.
Who will win? Who will lose? Let’s figure it out. All lines are as of Wednesday and courtesy of Caesars.
NFL Predictions: Lock of the Week
Betting line
Ravens -3; Ravens -170, Steelers +143; O/U 36
These bitter rivals meet for the second time in 22 days, with the Baltimore Ravens taking the first game of the season series 16-14 in Pittsburgh.
Lamar Jackson didn’t play in that game, and at the time of this story’s submission, it wasn’t altogether clear whether he will play in this one, either.
That’s obviously not ideal for Baltimore, which has scored just 46 points in the last four games — a stretch that began in the Ravens’ win over the Broncos, which is when Jackson got hurt. And yet, the Ravens have kept within shouting distance of the AFC North-leading Cincinnati Bengals thanks to a defense that ranks 10th in EPA per play since Week 13 (-.05), a ranking bolstered by the NFL’s fifth-most effective run defense over that time.
That’s bad news for a Pittsburgh Steelers club that has won five of its last seven games despite scoring 24 or fewer points in those five wins. The Steelers are bad on offense in both phases, but they’re better running the ball than they are throwing it. Our sense is they’ll struggle to do either Sunday night.
The Ravens have already clinched a playoff spot. And they can capture the AFC North by winning out. The Steelers need two wins and a ton of help over the last two weeks to return to the playoffs.
Adam Beasley: Ravens 22, Steelers 14
Dalton Miller: Ravens 27, Steelers 23
Dallas Robinson: Ravens 22, Steelers 17
NFL Predictions: Upset of the Week
Betting line
Jets -1.5; Jets -125, Seahawks +105; O/U 42.5
Here’s how down bad the New York Jets and their fans are: There was a small celebration this week when their third-string quarterback was cleared to return from a rib injury.
Mike White will start his fourth game of the season Sunday, and while his career stats very much have the look of a backup — 64.4% completions, eight touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 80.4 passer rating — he’s way better than Zach Wilson. And that’s why he’s starting.
But better doesn’t necessarily mean good, and the Jets are going to presumably need to score some points to beat a desperate Seattle Seahawks club. Seattle has lost five of its last six games, and it’s been the offense that’s failed the club during this recent slump. The Seahawks have scored just 124 points in their last six games — including 23 in the last two.
But compared to the Jets, they’ve been firing on all cylinders. New York has lost four straight, managing 54 points during the skid that has imperiled the Jets’ once-bright playoff prospects. Neither team can clinch a playoff berth this weekend, but both can be eliminated.
The Jets are out with a loss or a tie and a Dolphins win. The Seahawks would be eliminated with a loss if other results go against them this weekend.
Adam Beasley: Seahawks 22, Jets 21
Dalton Miller: Seahawks 23, Jets 20
Dallas Robinson: Jets 23, Seahawks 21
More NFL Predictions and Picks
Dallas Cowboys vs. Tennessee Titans
Betting line
Cowboys -10; Cowboys -480, Titans +360; O/U 40.5
The Dallas Cowboys offense has been one of the hottest in the NFL in recent weeks, averaging 33 points per game since Dak Prescott’s return from injury in Week 7. Meanwhile, the Tennessee Titans haven’t reached the 30-point mark at all in 2022. Tennessee is on a five-game skid, while Dallas has won five of their last six.
The Tennessee offense hasn’t been impressive this season, but they’ll face a Dallas defense that has suffered multiple injuries over the past few weeks, hindering their ability to defend the run, which could bode well for the Titans.
The Titans’ defense must get consistent pressure against Prescott to have a chance on Thursday night. However, it will probably take multiple Prescott turnovers to have a chance at victory. Luckily for Tennessee, turnovers have followed Prescott this season.
— Dalton Miller
Adam Beasley: Cowboys 28, Titans 14
Dalton Miller: Cowboys 31, Titans 22
Dallas Robinson: Cowboys 32, Titans 16
Arizona Cardinals vs. Atlanta Falcons
Betting line
Falcons -3.5; Falcons -190, Cardinals +158; O/U 41
There are a number of high-stakes, much-anticipated matchups this weekend. This game is not one of them.
These are two teams whose bags are probably already packed. There’s zero motivation for either team aside from personal pride and ambition. Games like this are always a challenge to handicap because you don’t know who’s going to play, and among those that do, you don’t know who’s going to care.
MORE: NFL Week 17 Best Bets
The Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals are two of the NFL’s six worst teams. It’s hard to fathom who will watch this one outside of hard-core fans or hard-core gamblers.
The quarterback matchup was still TBD at the time of this column’s submission. The Falcons will roll with Desmond Ridder, whose next touchdown pass will be his first as a pro. Either Colt McCoy or Trace McSorley will start for Arizona. Yuck.
Editor’s note: Cardinals QB Colt McCoy has cleared concussion protocol and is expected to start.
— Adam H. Beasley
Adam Beasley: Falcons 24, Cardinals 17
Dalton Miller: Falcons 18, Cardinals 15
Dallas Robinson: Falcons 22, Cardinals 20
Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Giants
Betting line
Giants -5.0; Giants -225, Colts +185; O/U 38.5
The Indianapolis Colts’ decision to start Nick Foles did not go well. The Colts’ offense did not magically turn into a juggernaut overnight, and their defense was unable to consistently get stops against the Chargers’ offense, who methodically put together three 12-plus-play drives throughout the contest (mostly because it’s impossible for them to make explosive plays). The Colts have now lost five consecutive games after Jeff Saturday’s debut.
The Giants haven’t had their best run recently either, but at 8-6-1 are still battling for a spot in the NFL playoffs. After losing a hard-fought game against the Minnesota Vikings, and currently just a win away from clinching a playoff berth, they definitely want to do so in Week 17 and not have to beat the two-loss Eagles in Week 18 to get in.
— Dalton Miller
Adam Beasley: Giants 23, Colts 17
Dalton Miller: Giants 22, Colts 16
Dallas Robinson: Giants 24, Colts 20
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans
Betting line
Jaguars -4.5; Jaguars -220, Texans +180; O/U 43.5
The Jacksonville Jaguars are within earshot of an AFC South division crown, and with games remaining against the Houston Texans and the Titans, they control their own destiny. Luckily, they’ll get even more clarity on Thursday as Tennessee battles Dallas on Thursday Night Football. However, no matter what the outcome in Week 17, Jacksonville will need to beat Tennessee in Week 18 to make the playoffs.
Trevor Lawrence appears to have officially arrived, and the Texans roster has taken some huge hits over the past few weeks due to injury. However, the Texans have also played Dallas and Kansas City extremely tight over the past two weeks, and they beat Tennessee a week ago. They’ve done so by keeping good offenses in check.
While this game is a bit inconsequential for Jacksonville, there is little doubt that the Jags would like to play well heading into their all-or-nothing matchup in Week 18.
— Dalton Miller
Adam Beasley: Jaguars 26, Texans 18
Dalton Miller: Jaguars 27, Texans 17
Dallas Robinson: Jaguars 28, Texans 17
Cleveland Browns vs. Washington Commanders
Betting line
Commanders -2; Commanders -125, Browns +105; O/U 40.5
The Commanders’ playoff situation is easy. If they win their final two games, they will be in the playoffs. Washington’s defense has played well this season, and Deshaun Watson has produced like one of the worst quarterbacks in the league since returning from suspension. So Washington’s defense should, realistically, have a good day against a struggling Browns offense.
The name “Riverboat Ron” has always been a bit of a miscast because Ron Rivera has never been much of a gambler on the field. But the name fits now as much as it ever has. Starting Carson Wentz is a massive gamble because although his ceiling is probably higher than Taylor Heinicke’s, we’ve seen his floor be the basement.
But if he plays well, he could redeem himself from the Colts’ collapse a season ago and start to rehabilitate his reputation.
— Dalton Miller
Adam Beasley: Browns 21, Commanders 19
Dalton Miller: Commanders 23, Browns 16
Dallas Robinson: Browns 23, Commanders 21
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions
Betting line
Lions -6; Lions -267, Bears +215; O/U 52
The Detroit Lions are feeling great about where they are and should celebrate their wins, but last week’s showing against Carolina tells us that they shouldn’t be counted on to defend the run, even with the bevy of front-seven players who specialize in stopping rushers.
Against Justin Fields, that’s a problem. The Bears could give the Lions fits in that department, though they probably won’t be able to do so from drive to drive. The injuries on offense might limit all of the possibilities the Bears have to do damage, however.
As the Lions adjust defensively, they should be able to count on a surprisingly effective Jared Goff and their great receiving corps to take advantage of the porous Bears defense. The Bears’ secondary is promising, but there’s a big gap between potential and talent.
— Arif Hasan
Adam Beasley: Lions 29, Bears 22
Dalton Miller: Lions 30, Bears 25
Dallas Robinson: Lions 30, Bears 25
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Betting line
Buccaneers -3; Buccaneers -165, Panthers +140; O/U 39.5
Sam Darnold has looked strangely good since re-entering the starting lineup, but without much around him, there’s not much the Panthers can do from play to play on offense. The combination of D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard is effective but not consistently dynamic.
Against a good Buccaneers defense, that probably won’t be enough. Tom Brady doesn’t look like Brady, but he doesn’t look like a bottom-of-the-league quarterback. He can distribute the ball among that great group of receivers. Without Jaycee Horn on the back end, there’s not much the Carolina defense has available to answer that group.
Still, it’s possible that Darnold has a good day and Brady has a bad one — it’s happened before.
— Arif Hasan
Adam Beasley: Buccaneers 22, Panthers 17
Dalton Miller: Buccaneers 23, Panthers 21
Dallas Robinson: Buccaneers 24, Panthers 19
Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots
Betting line
Patriots -2.5; Patriots -145, Dolphins +122; O/U 42
No one but the Grinch was happier to see the holiday season end than the Dolphins, who lost all four of their December games to go from a potential No. 1 seed to at risk of missing the playoffs altogether.
But the Dolphins have far more serious concerns this week than simply saving their season. Their star quarterback is in the concussion protocol for the second time this season, and it’s unclear when (if?) it’s safe and responsible to put him back on the field. There were some who even called upon Tagovailoa to retire this week.
MORE: Teddy Bridgewater Can Still Lead Dolphins to Playoffs
That’s likely not going to happen. But if the Dolphins are going to end a six-year playoff drought, they need Teddy Bridgewater’s best game against one of the NFL’s best pass defenses. The Patriots rank first in EPA per dropback (-.097), sixth in passer rating against (82.8), and eighth in yards allowed per attempt (6.1).
The Patriots have a clear edge on defense. The Dolphins would have a clear edge on offense if Tua was healthy. But he’s not.
The Dolphins can clinch the AFC’s seventh seed this weekend with a win and a Jets loss but cannot be eliminated even with a loss. The Patriots are done if they lose.
— Adam H. Beasley
Adam Beasley: Patriots 25, Dolphins 17
Dalton Miller: Patriots 23, Dolphins 21
Dallas Robinson: Patriots 23, Dolphins 20
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Betting line
Chiefs -13.5; Chiefs -800, Broncos +550; O/U 45
It’s difficult to tell how interim coach Jerry Rosburg will do, especially since he wasn’t involved directly in any coaching, having been brought on early in the season as a game management consultant. One would hope he can at least handle that, but it may not matter, given how those situations are meant to close out tight games, and this game probably won’t be tight.
The Chiefs are rolling. They have been both explosive and consistent and lead the league in big plays and first downs per opportunity. The offense is the best in the league. With the Denver defense struggling without Bradley Chubb, it’s tough to say that Kansas City will even slow down.
The Chiefs’ defense isn’t elite, but it’s deep enough at corner and has good linebackers and a great defensive tackle, enough to inhibit a weak Denver offense, led by a struggling Russell Wilson.
It’s possible that a new coaching environment in Denver will revive some of what made the Broncos so intriguing at the beginning of the season, but it won’t be enough to move the needle.
— Arif Hasan
Adam Beasley: Chiefs 28, Broncos 16
Dalton Miller: Chiefs 27, Broncos 17
Dallas Robinson: Chiefs 31, Broncos 17
New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Betting line
Eagles -7; Eagles -335, Saints +260; O/U 44
The Philadelphia Eagles need just one more win to clinch the NFC East and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. As of late Wednesday, it was still unclear if Jalen Hurts’ shoulder injury will allow him to play in Week 17, but Gardner Minshew proved he’s more than capable of leading Philadelphia’s offense after posting nearly nine yards per attempt in a close Week 16 loss to the Cowboys.
Over the past month, the Saints have boasted one of the league’s most efficient pass defenses, but they’ve struggled against the run. Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen typically attacks his opponents’ weakness with fervor, so a heavy dose of Miles Sanders is likely in order.
Following two straight wins, the Saints have a path to the playoffs, but it’s incredibly narrow. New Orleans would need to win both of their remaining games, and the Buccaneers would have to lose both of theirs in order for the Saints to enter the postseason as the NFC South champs.
— Dallas Robinson
Adam Beasley: Eagles 26, Saints 18
Dalton Miller: Eagles 24, Saints 20
Dallas Robinson: Eagles 28, Saints 20
San Francisco 49ers vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Betting line
49ers -6; 49ers -260, Raiders +210; O/U 44.5
With seven straight wins under their belt, the San Francisco 49ers are the hottest team in football. None of their recent victories have been particularly close, as only two of those wins were one-score games. San Francisco’s defense ranks first in DVOA over the past month, while their Brock Purdy-led offense is behind only the Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills.
The 49ers will likely be either the second or third seed in the NFC. They could theoretically grab the No. 1 seed, but they’d need to win out, have the Eagles lose out, and see the Vikings lose at least one of their next two. More realistically, these next two weeks will allow a tune-up period — especially for Purdy — as they ramp up for the Wild Card Round.
Three weeks ago, the Raiders looked like a threat to sneak into the AFC playoffs as a Wild Card team, but losses to the Los Angeles Rams and Pittsburgh Steelers have eliminated that possibility. With games against the 49ers and Chiefs rounding out their schedule, Las Vegas is likely to finish 5-11.
With a path to the postseason no longer feasible, the Raiders aren’t taking any chances that Derek Carr’s 2023 salary could become guaranteed if he gets injured over their final two games. Starting Jarrett Stidham at quarterback wouldn’t be the correct decision if Las Vegas was trying to win, but it’s the right call for the future of the franchise.
— Dallas Robinson
Adam Beasley: 49ers 27, Raiders 18
Dalton Miller: 49ers 30, Raiders 18
Dallas Robinson: 49ers 29, Raiders 21
Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers
Betting line
Packers -3.5; Packers -190; Vikings +158; O/U 48.5
Once again, the Vikings are underdogs against a team with a losing record. The Vikings are 1-3 as underdogs, so bettors seem to have some understanding of who they are as a team. But it’s still a surprising line. That said, the Packers are on a three-game winning streak, with a signature win against Miami most recently.
The Green Bay defense is talented but hasn’t been coherent, and it has rotated through players in the starting unit in order to find something that worked. But these past three games have showcased a potentially improved defense that could slow down the effective Vikings offense, one that likely won’t see Justin Jefferson go off in the same way he did in Week 1.
That said, the Vikings’ offense is potent and getting more consistent. The real key will be whether their defense can maintain their shift to a more man-coverage and blitz-heavy style. This would put some stress on the emerging chemistry between Aaron Rodgers and his receivers. Even with their struggles this year, it’s tough to bet against Aaron Rodgers against the blitz.
— Arif Hasan
Adam Beasley: Packers 25, Vikings 23
Dalton Miller: Packers 27, Vikings 25
Dallas Robinson: Packers 26, Vikings 23
Los Angeles Rams vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Betting line
Chargers -6.5; Chargers -285, Rams +228; O/U 41
The Chargers have already clinched a playoff berth, and because they can no longer win the AFC West, they’re simply playing for Wild Card seeding. L.A.’s defense has carried them during their three-game win streak, and playing a slate of relatively weak teams hasn’t hurt either.
Still, it will be hard to feel confident about the Chargers unless their offense gets back on track. Facing depleted Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts defenses over the past two weeks, Los Angeles scored only 37 total points.
Justin Herbert threw no touchdowns against three interceptions and averaged just 5.66 adjusted net yards per attempt. Among 31 qualifying quarterbacks during that span, Herbert ranked 21st in expected points added per play.
On the other side of this all-L.A. battle sit the Rams, who have continued to play hard for Sean McVay despite their disaster of a post-Super Bowl campaign. Baker Mayfield has looked revitalized in his Rams uniform, and while another 51-point barrage is highly unlikely, there’s enough fight in this team that Week 17 won’t be a cakewalk for the Chargers.
— Dallas Robinson
Adam Beasley: Chargers 24, Rams 17
Dalton Miller: Chargers 27, Rams 20
Dallas Robinson: Chargers 25, Rams 19
Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Betting line
Bills -1; Bills -115, Bengals -105; O/U 49.5
Both the Bills and the Bengals are in the running to secure the AFC’s top seed. If Buffalo wins and the Chiefs lose, the Bills will clinch home-field advantage this week. If Cincinnati wins, they could clinch the AFC North while also putting themselves in prime position for the No. 1 seed in the conference.
The Bengals have been elite against the run over the past month, and the Bills are one of the NFL’s pass-heavy teams. Buffalo will likely attack through the air, and if Cincinnati plays bracket coverage on Stefon Diggs, the Bills will need Gabe Davis — who hasn’t topped 70 yards since Week 10 — to step up against beatable Cincinnati corners Eli Apple and Cam Taylor-Britt.
On the other side of the ball, Joe Burrow has gotten far more comfortable facing pressure, but disrupting the pocket is still the best path to success for Buffalo’s defense. Since Week 13, the Bills have only blitzed 25 times (12th-fewest in the NFL) but generated 33 pressures (10th-most). If they can wreak havoc on a Bengals OL now without La’el Collins, the Bills’ defense could make it a long Monday night for Burrow.
— Dallas Robinson
Adam Beasley: Bills 26, Bengals 24
Dalton Miller: Bengals 31, Bills 30
Dallas Robinson: Bengals 30, Bills 27
Season standings through 16 weeks
Adam Beasley: 142-96-2 straight up, 107-124-9 against the spread
Dalton Miller: 144-94-2, 103-128-9
Dallas Robinson: 155-83-2, 112-119-9