Today, we break down this week’s football slate, see what the NFL weather report and forecast for Week 16 will be, and determine if any of your fantasy football players could be impacted. As always, good luck, stay safe, and let’s win the week!
NFL Weather Report and Forecast for Week 16: Historic Christmas Weekend Cold
All times are Eastern, and the NFL Week 16 weather report will be updated if any changes happen from the time of writing to kickoff. The NFL weather forecast for Week 16 is based on reports from the National Weather Service. All betting lines are from the NFL’s official website.
Buffalo Bills (-8.5) at Chicago Bears, O/U 40.5 | Saturday 1:00 p.m. ET
It feels like the Bills have been at the nexus of all the weather the last month, and it continues on Saturday. While the worst the Chicago area will have experienced will have moved east by Christmas Eve, what is left behind is more than enough to have an impact.
For one, like in many places being mentioned, it’s going to be absolutely freezing. Something the majority of you are probably experiencing or just did. Nine-degree temperatures will feel as if they are -15 degrees. Yes, 15 below zero. This is due to the significant sustained winds of 23 mph that will have periodic gusts of 35 to 40 mph at times. There is only a 10% chance of snow, but if there is any in the air, falling or picked up by the wind, it will certainly look as if it is snowing at a decent clip.
These are the extremes where temperatures can impact games. Extreme heat causes players to cramp and fatigue, while extreme cold makes fingers and limbs not work the way players want. Kicking could be impossible, aside from chip shots and deep passes likely will take a backseat to a more conservative style of play.
I downgrade the pass catchers here but would keep both Justin Fields and Josh Allen as starters due to their rushing volume, which will be needed more than ever on Saturday.
New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns (-2.5), O/U 32.5 | Saturday 1:00 p.m. ET
This might end up being the worst game of them all. Seven-degree temperatures will feel closer to -15 thanks to the 30 mph sustained winds and gusts reaching around 45 mph. There is a slight chance for flurries, and while there shouldn’t be a significant snowfall during the game, the winds and open corners of the stadium will cause a noticeable impact.
MORE: Week 16 Fantasy Football Start/Sit Recommendations
I’m already down on the Browns’ passing game as Deshaun Watson has yet to play like the player we last saw, which was expected, but there is just too much going on for me to trust their players. Neither kicker should be played this week, and honestly, the only players I have any confidence in are Nick Chubb and Alvin Kamara. I get it if you have to start Amari Cooper, but everyone else should remain on your bench.
Detroit Lions (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers, O/U 43.5 | Saturday 1:00 p.m. ET
It’ll look sunny on TV, but it won’t be warm in Charlotte. Highs near 29 degrees will feel as low as -3 due to nine to 11 mph sustained winds and gusts as high as 20 mph. The most concerning part of this weather report is the subzero temperature. I’m not saying it’s good by any means; it’s just not as bad as the others.
Amon-Ra St. Brown and D.J. Moore should still have great games as their team’s volume hogs. Moore is the only wide receiver in the NFL with more than 50% of his team’s air yard share at 52.56% (1,192), yet he only has 536 completed air yards.
I also like D’Andre Swift and Jammal Williams more than Chuba Hubbard and D’Onta Foreman, who each laid an egg last week. They are low-end RB3s/high-end RB4s.
Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5), O/U 34.5 | Saturday 1:00 p.m. ET
I expect the weather to impact most games on the slate, including how teams design their game plans. However, Atlanta and Baltimore can stay with their identities, as neither relies on the passing game.
That’ll be a good thing here in Baltimore, where the seven-degree temperatures will feel closer to -4 with 15 mph sustained winds and gusts hitting 30 mph. Partly cloudy skies will give some brief sunlight but not enough to raise the temperatures.
This game should feed into J.K. Dobbins’ workload. Since returning in Week 14, Dobbins has back-to-back games of 100 rushing yards and is averaging 122.5 yards on 14 attempts with RB19 and RB10 finishes along the way. He is 11th in points per game despite being limited by his knee, yet nearly 32% of his rushes are going for a first down or a touchdown.
Since Week 10, Atlanta has been 30th in success rate, 31st in yards, and 23rd in EPA. I’m higher than others on Dobbins, who sits as a low-end RB1 for me to start in Week 16.
Cincinnati Bengals (-3) at New England Patriots, O/U 41.5 | Saturday 1:00 p.m. ET
By now, you likely know the trend. It’s going to be cold and windy. 19-degree temperatures in Foxborough will feel around two degrees with 13 mph sustained winds and gusts reaching 20 to 25 mph with mostly clear skies. It’s not the worst weather forecast for Week 16, but it sure isn’t great.
I would still certainly start Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins this week, but I’m staying away from the Patriots pass catchers. The only player I feel safe starting for New England would be Rhamondre Stevenson.
MORE: Patriots’ Injury Updates on Stevenson, Meyers, Harris, Others
He returned to a significant role last week with 21 touches and 168 total yards and is the RB10 in points per game. He’s a volume-based RB1 against the Bengals’ defense that, since Week 10, is 10th in success rate, third in EPA, and fifth in yards per game.
Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs (-10), O/U 49.5 | Saturday 1:00 p.m. ET
The worst of the conditions missed Kansas City, but the winds on the backside of the storm certainly will be felt. Frigid temperatures will feel between zero to -4 due to the clear skies and 10 to 14 mph sustained winds.
But at the same time, these teams are who they are, and I expect Patrick Mahomes and Geno Smith to see significant volume still. Kenneth Walker III is a high-end RB2 after receiving 16 touches and 79 total yards last week in his first game back. Meanwhile, Jerick McKinnon is a low-end RB1. He’s the RB1 over his previous two games, and since Week 10, Seattle has been 27th in success rate, 31st in EPA, and 32nd in yards on the ground.
Additionally, they are 29th in DVOA, 28th in receptions, and 30th in yards per reception allowed. Assuming we see another game where the Chiefs aren’t able to pull away, McKinnon should be a fantastic option for fantasy managers in Week 16 despite the weather conditions.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3.5), O/U 35.5 | Saturday 2:00 p.m. ET
Update: Kickoff has been delayed by an hour to 2 p.m. ET due to strain on the local power grid.
Nashville will almost feel mild on Christmas Eve compared to other games already mentioned. 18 to 24-degree temperatures will feel closer between 10 to 13, with 10 to 12 mph sustained winds and gusts nearing 20 mph during the first half.
I want nothing to do with anyone on the Houston Texans this week. Nico Collins has been placed on the IR, Brandon Cooks has been inactive since Week 12, Damien Pierce is done, and Davis Mills is one interception away from being benched.
Regarding the Titans, the only player I am starting with confidence is Derrick Henry, who is the RB4 in points per game while averaging 23.2 touches and 120.2 total yards. He’s King Henry, and nothing is going to change that. He’s a top-three running back this week against the Texans’ defense that is 11th in success rate and 27th in yards per game since Week 10. If you need a streamer at tight end, Chigoziem Okonkwo is a borderline TE1 against a bottom-five defense.
Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5), O/U 38.5 | Saturday 8:15 p.m. ET
There will be a different feeling around the Pittsburgh area as what should’ve been a celebration of the 50th anniversary of the Immaculate Reception is turned into a memorial and celebration of the life of Steelers great Franco Harris, who recently passed away.
Unfortunately, the conditions in the area won’t be warming anyone up as Sunday Night Football will be met with temperatures between -8 and -5 degrees thanks to 14 mph sustained winds and 30 mph gusts. Mostly overcast skies also bring a 10% chance of light flurries into the area.
Kenny Pickett is making his return this week after missing the last two games due to a concussion, but it remains to be seen whether or not Diontae Johnson will be able to suit up as well as he deals with a toe injury.
On the other side of the ball, Derek Carr and Davante Adams have one of the best connections in the game, and the Raiders got healthier with the return of Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow last week. Even in cold conditions, I don’t see the Steelers slowing down the passing attack, as they have a secondary with numerous holes.
With that said, I expect both of these offenses to lean on the rushing attacks through Josh Jacobs and Najee Harris. For a breakdown of my favorite underdog plays for the Week 16 Pick’em contests on Sunday night football, you can find those here.
NFL Weather Report and Forecast for Week 16 Games: Worry-Free Weather
After a week full of surprises, the rest of the Week 16 slate of games should be smooth sailing as it relates to the weather forecast.
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers (-7), O/U 37.5 | Saturday 4:05 PM ET
There’s always the debate between the East Coast versus the West Coast and who is the best coast. I’m in the middle of the country, so I don’t have a side in the fight, but there’s something to be said about the California weather this time of year. Santa Clara will look like a tropical holiday to many as we’re expecting mostly sunny skies with highs near 64 and winds between three to eight mph on the Week 16 weather forecast. This is Christmas in California.
However, Christmas came early to 49ers fans when they acquired Christian McCaffrey, who has been better than advertised for fantasy football. Since they lost Elijah Mitchell to injury, McCaffrey is averaging 24.3 touches and 145.7 total yards per game. Brock Purdy has been able to keep this offense rolling, and he remains an option in 2QB and Superflex formats.
MORE: Week 16 PPR Fantasy Football Rankings
When it comes to the Commanders, Terry McLaurin is the only player I’m interested in, but it’s purely based on volume. Since Week 7, McLaurin is the WR21 in fantasy with a near 30% target share (8.4 per game), 44% air-yard share, and a highly efficient 2.73 yards per route run. While the 49ers do have one of the best defenses in football, McLaurin is a low-end WR2 who I would start in one of the week’s few pleasant games.
Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins (-3.5), O/U 49.5 | Sunday 1:00 PM ET
The Packers and their fans should be thanking their lucky stars they’re not playing at Lambeau Field this week but get to spend Christmas in Miami. Folks around the area will call this cold, but it cannot be further from the truth. The current Week 16 weather forecast calls for 55-degree temperatures with 15 mph sustained winds and gusts that could hit 20 mph but nothing that I will consider impactful. There’s a 30% chance of light rain with overcast skies, but I’m not too worried.
The only people who should be worried are those going against Christian Watson in fantasy this week. Since Week 10, Watson has been the WR5, despite having his worst game as of late against the Rams last week, where he caught four passes for 46 yards.
However, that was more due to the matchup against the Rams, who run more zone coverage than anyone else. Watson averages only 1.25 yards per round run against zone coverage compared to 4.29 against man. It just so happens Miami runs man coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL. I’m trusting Watson as a WR2 against the Dolphins and their 26th-ranked passing defense in DVOA.
Indoor Games in Week 16
Because these NFL games are indoors, the weather conditions can be controlled. As such, it’ll be optimal playing conditions for these teams. The passing and kicking games will not be affected.
- New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-3)
O/U 49.5 | Saturday 1:00 PM ET - Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-4)
O/U 47.5 | Saturday 4:25 PM ET - Denver Broncos (-3) at Los Angeles Rams
O/U 36.5 | Sunday 4:30 PM ET - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) at Arizona Cardinals
O/U 39.5 | Sunday 8:20 PM ET - Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5) at Indianapolis Colts
O/U 45.5 | Monday 8:15 PM ET