If you’re planning to make Week 18 NFL bets, here are my favorite wagers — my best bets for the upcoming slate of games. Last week, we hit four of five best bets. Let’s try to crush it again.
As always, we’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated and which could fall short of expectations. All bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Early NFL Week 18 Best Bets
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics culled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, we’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Dolphins vs. Jets | Moneyline — Dolphins (-140)
I’ve written for a while that it was only a matter of time before Mike White was exposed. That’s no knock on White. He’s an NFL player — one of the 75 best professional quarterbacks in the world. But he’s not top 25. At least not yet.
The moneyline for this contest assumes a near toss-up between two AFC East rivals fighting for a shot at the postseason. But it misses the central point.
MORE: Early NFL Week 18 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread
The Miami Dolphins’ running game is far superior to the New York Jets’. So is Miami’s passing game — even if they have to start their third-string rookie. And the Dolphins are playing at home, where they’re 11-4 in December/January contests since the 2017 season.
Is Miami in free fall after beginning 8-3? Absolutely. Are they man-to-man capable of overpowering the offensively bereft Jets? Absolutely.
Dolphins vs. Jets | -2.5 Dolphins
And yes, this means not only will Miami win, but they should win surprisingly comfortably. The point spread doesn’t adequately capture their numerous advantages — or recognize their turnaround potential.
The Dolphins’ five-game losing streak included four road contests versus the 49ers, Chargers, Bills, and Patriots. Three of those defeats were by six points or less. Two of these opponents (as of Monday afternoon) are battling for their conference’s No. 1 seed. Another — the Chargers — are one of the AFC’s best teams when healthy.
Miami has endured arguably the toughest schedule in the league these past five weeks. The Jets — with no Breece Hall, no reliable QB, and no shot at the postseason — likely are still wrestling with what went wrong. I’m picking the more motivated, desperate Dolphins to rebound sharply.
Bengals vs. Ravens | Moneyline — Bengals (-285)
The Baltimore Ravens’ No. 1 wideout has fewer receptions (46) and receiving yards (434) than Greg Dortch. Their No. 3 wideout in catches and yards is a 36-year-old most recently cut by the Raiders.
Baltimore must have known they were playing with fire when they traded Marquise Brown last spring, leaving them painfully exposed in the passing game. Yes, Rashod Bateman’s season-ending injury was unexpected, but there was no backup plan.
Similarly, there was no adequate backup plan for Lamar Jackson, whose injury last season arguably cost them a postseason berth. Tyler Huntley can only do so much with Mark Andrews, rookie Isaiah Likely, and a rag-tag collection of wide receivers who might not start on 29-30 other teams.
Simply put, it’s hard to envision the Cincinnati Bengals falling to this team, even if Jackson somehow returns.
Bengals vs. Ravens | -6.5 Bengals
In the Ravens’ narrow home win over the Bengals in Week 5, Joe Burrow largely struggled without Tee Higgins. He and the Bengals also came up empty with 1st-and-goal at Baltimore’s 2-yard line.
Today’s Bengals are in a much different place with a healthy complement of collectively elite receivers. They’ve won nine of 10 since that defeat, with Burrow posting 4+ touchdowns four times and less than two scores only once.
Notably, since failing to find the end zone on 1st-and-goal at the Ravens’ 2, Burrow has rushed for five scores, including three times from the 1-yard line. This is a sharp departure from last season when he didn’t rush for any scores inside the 6.
What changed? Perhaps two years removed from a season-ending injury, Burrow’s playing more aggressively. He’s on pace to double last year’s rushing attempts and has already more than doubled last year’s rushing yards. His positioning as a goal-line threat is something new and powerful in an offense that’s already tough to slow down.
Put it all together, and we have a motivated Bengals squad in a must-win game with a superior offense and capable enough defense to contain whatever the Ravens can throw at them. Cincy should win by at least nine points.