With just one game remaining on the Week 17 NFL schedule, the playoff picture is beginning to solidify. The Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, and Cincinnati Bengals each have a path to the number one seed in the AFC, and Monday night’s Bills-Bengals game will play a significant role in deciding which club earns a first-round bye and home-field advantage.
Let’s run through the remaining schedules for Buffalo, Kansas City, and Cincinnati and determine how each team can capture the AFC’s top seed.
Week 18 Playoff Scenarios
The team that secures the AFC’s No. 1 seed will enjoy a substantial advantage over its fellow playoff participants. The first-round bye allows the top seed to play one fewer game during their playoff run, and it gives that club’s roster an extra week to recover from any injury issues. Holding home-field advantage throughout the postseason, including in the conference title game, is also incredibly important.
MORE: NFC No. 1 Seed Playoff Scenarios
Here are the scenarios by which the Bills, Chiefs, and Bengals can claim the number one seed in the AFC.
Buffalo Bills Path to the No. 1 Seed
The Bills have held the AFC’s No. 1 seed for the majority of the season, but they haven’t yet officially clinched home-field advantage. Here’s how Buffalo can secure the top seed over the next two weeks:
- Week 17: Win vs. Bengals
- Week 18: Win vs. Patriots
If the Bills defeat the Bengals on Monday Night Football in Week 17, they’ll have the same 13-3 record as the Chiefs. However, Buffalo holds the head-to-head tiebreaker thanks to their Week 6 win over Kansas City.
In that scenario, the Bills would either need to beat the Patriots in Week 18 or see the Chiefs lose to the Raiders on Saturday. Because Kansas City plays on Saturday, Buffalo will head into its Sunday game already knowing whether the Chiefs have reached 14 wins. If KC loses on Saturday, and the Bills have already beaten the Bengals, Buffalo would have nothing to play for in Week 18.
Depending on how the end of the season shakes out, the Bills could finish as the first, second, or third seed in the AFC. There is no scenario in which they’ll fall to No. 4 in the conference.
Kansas City Chiefs Path to the No. 1 Seed
Patrick Mahomes has entered the playoffs as the AFC’s No. 1 seed in two seasons as the Chiefs’ starting quarterback (2018 and 2020). Kansas City also received a first-round bye as the second seed in 2019, before the NFL expanded the postseason field to seven teams and altered the format to only give the top seed a week off.
Because the Bills hold the tiebreaker over the Chiefs, KC has to finish with at least one more win than Buffalo. Here’s how they can secure the AFC’s No. 1 seed:
- Win vs. Raiders in Week 18
- AND Bills lose vs. Bengals OR Patriots
The Chiefs defeated the Raiders, 30-29, in Week 4. This time around, they’ll play Las Vegas with Jarrett Stidham under center in place of Derek Carr. Kansas City opened as a 9.5-point road favorite.
KC can finish as the first, second, or third seed in the conference. No matter what happens on Monday night between the Bills and Bengals, the Chiefs will have to play to win on Saturday. If Kansas City loses to the Raiders, Buffalo and Cincinnati could both have the opportunity to usurp the Chiefs for the top seed.
Cincinnati Bengals Path to the No. 1 Seed
The Bengals have the worst odds of grabbing the AFC’s number one seed. But given that Cincinnati has won seven straight games and nine of their last 10, it’s difficult to count them out.
Here’s how the Bengals can clinch the No. 1 seed over the next two weeks:
- Week 17: Win vs. Bills
- Week 18: Win vs. Ravens AND Chiefs lose to Raiders
A Bengals win on Monday Night Football would give Cincinnati not only the AFC North crown but also the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bills and the Chiefs. At 12-4, the Bengals would still be a game behind Kansas City, so they’d need the Chiefs to fall to Las Vegas on Saturday.
MORE: AFC North Playoff Scenarios
If Cincinnati beats the Bills, but the Chiefs win on Saturday, the Bengals would be out of the running for the top seed. In that case, head coach Zac Taylor would likely rest his starters against the Ravens on Sunday.
If the Bengals lose on Monday night, the AFC North title will come down to Week 18’s Bengals-Ravens game. Unlike Buffalo and Kansas City, Cincinnati could still finish as a Wild Card team. The Bengals could end up as the No. 1, No. 2, No. 3, No. 5, or No. 6 seed in the conference.