As fantasy football managers make numerous waiver claims for Week 18, hoping to finish their season off with a coveted fantasy championship, should managers needing a running back consider Atlanta Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier or Indianapolis Colts RB Zack Moss in Week 18 as both could be valuable waiver wire targets?
Tyler Allgeier Remains One of the NFL Better Backs Down the Stretch
The bookend weeks of the NFL regular season are the most challenging ones for fantasy. In Week 1, we have an offseason full of speculation, and we wait to see who will play what roles. Flash forward to now, and trying to predict what players will play in Week 18 or how much they’ll suit up is one of the more difficult things you can do. And I don’t mean enjoyable.
One player on a massive hot streak that should continue is Allgeier. He was at it again against the Cardinals, rushing 20 times for 83 yards and a touchdown in Week 17. He also caught his lone target for 12 yards.
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With 136 yards in Week 15 and 117 total against Baltimore a week later, Allgeier came just short of his third straight 100+ yard game. As of late, Allgeier has seen top-tier volume, recording 18 touches, 24, and 21, respectively, in his last three games while finishing as the RB8, RB12, and RB12 in fantasy. We wish he were more involved in the passing game for the PPR bonus, as the efficiency of those touches is about 2.5x more valuable.
After showing little upside, but a surprisingly low floor given the volume, Allgeier has been one of the best running backs for fantasy since the Falcons’ Week 14 bye. You can’t help but wonder if they made a concerted effort to give him the ball more as protection for Desmond Ridder, who took over under center.
Allgeier is not only one of the more valuable RBs right now to have on your roster, but depending on how the offseason shakes out, don’t be surprised if Allgeier is one of the best values being discussed heading into drafts next year.
Although the Volume Is Fantastic, Zack Moss Has Done Very Little With It
Moss led the Colts’ backfield in snaps (34), routes run (10), and carries (15) against the Giants, rushing for 74 yards against one of the lower-ranked run defenses in the NFL.
Since the bye in Week 14 and shutting down Jonathan Taylor, Moss has rushed 51 times for 220 yards (4.3 YPA) with one reception on two targets for five yards. Although Moss is 11th in touches over the span, he’s one of the most inefficient players in the league for fantasy. Of the 68 players who have recorded 10 or more touches since Week 15, Moss is 59th in points per touch at 0.45 PPR.
The Colts’ offense is full of issues at the moment, and they’re limping into the offseason. They don’t have a head coach or a quarterback and are relying on a mid-season trade to be their starting RB. It’s going about how you would think.
There is something to be said this week for the “safe” option that we know will see touches because, at any moment, someone could be pulled from a game. You just have to hope they have done enough for your fantasy team by that point.
So the question is, can Moss produce enough fantasy value in a reduced workload not to lose your championship? From where I’m sitting, I don’t think that’s a gamble I’d want to take.
Should Allgeier or Moss Be a Top Waiver Wire Priority for Fantasy Managers in Week 18?
Rostered in 63.8% of leagues, if Allgeier is available, he would be my top addition off the Week 18 waiver wire. There are some more interesting names like Malik Davis, Joshua Kelley, and Alexander Mattison, but Allgeier is the starter which I know will be getting a sizable amount of volume and the matchup is not one that I instantly fade anymore.
The Buccaneers are no longer a pass-funnel defense. Over the last four weeks, they are 20th in points per game and are only at their best when they have both Akiem Hicks and Vita Vea up front.
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Allgeier does have the more demanding task between himself and Cordarrelle Patterson, but the former is a lower-end RB2 you could start if you can snag them off the waiver wire this week.
The only thing saving Moss this week is the matchup. The Houston Texans have been one of the best defenses to play against and sit 29th in points allowed over the last four weeks. Over that same stretch, they also sit 23rd in DVOA, 20th in success rate, and 14th in EPA.
On the year, Houston is allowing 141.4 rushing yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry. Moss is just average enough to take advantage of this type of matchup. I still wouldn’t view him as anything more than an RB3 due to the low floor, but I can understand grabbing him off the waiver wire in case one of your starters will be sitting out this week. Hopefully, that is information we get sooner rather than later.