Today, we break down this week’s football slate, see what the NFL weather report and forecast for Week 17 will be, and determine if any of your fantasy football players could be impacted. As always, good luck, stay safe, and let’s win the week!
NFL Weather Report and Forecast for Week 17: A Worry-Free Forecast for Fantasy Championships
All times are Eastern, and the NFL Week 17 Weather Report will be updated if any changes happen from the time of writing to kickoff. The NFL weather forecast for Week 17 is based on reports from the National Weather Service. All betting lines are from the NFL’s official website.
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5), O/U 44.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Back in Week 14, when these teams matched up, Russell Wilson had 247 passing yards, 57 rushing yards, and was the QB3 on the week. I don’t see that happening again. While the switch of Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton on the perimeter has helped their offense, I don’t have enough faith to start any Denver Broncos player this week outside of Jeudy as a WR3 with Sutton as a WR4.
With Greg Dulcich on IR and Latavius Murray in a three-way committee, I’d stay away with your championship life on the line. As for Kansas City, it’s status quo for Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Jerick McKinnon, and Isiah Pacheco.
As for the Week 17 weather forecast in Kansas City, expect partly sunny skies and 56-degree temperatures with six mph winds.
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Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-2.5), O/U 40.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Tua Tagovailoa is out for Week 17 as he finds himself back in the NFL concussion protocol. At this point, I don’t want to see him again until 2023. Teddy Bridgewater will take over under center, and while this certainly does lower the ceilings of both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, I would caution against getting too cute and benching either of them.
Hill is the WR3 in fantasy with a league-leading 33.5% target share, and after a mid-season falloff, Waddle has finished as the WR10 and WR5 in each of his last two weeks. Hill is a WR1, with Waddle a high-end WR2.
As for the New England Patriots, Damien Harris could eat into Rhamondre Stevenson’s workload a bit, but Stevenson remains a matchup-proof RB1. Despite playing with some injuries, he’s averaging 18 touches and 100.5 yards over the last two weeks.
If you need a tight end, Hunter Henry is slightly intriguing. Jonnu Smith has been ruled out with a concussion and faces a Dolphins’ defense that is 32nd in catch rate, 27th in yards, and is tied with the Arizona Cardinals and Detroit Lions for the most touchdowns surrendered.
Foxborough’s Week 17 weather forecast should feature 52-degree temperatures, partly cloudy skies, and nine mph winds.
Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants (-5.5), O/U 38.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
The Indianapolis Colts offense is dead. Nick Foles was the QB34 and averaged 4.9 yards per attempt last week, Zach Moss is as average of a running back as you could get, and Michael Pittman Jr. had just 39 yards on seven attempts while finishing as the WR45.
I don’t mind Moss as an RB3 after averaging 18 carries and 73 yards over the last two weeks as he faces the 29th-ranked defense in success rate that’s 31st and EPA. Meanwhile, Pittman is a shaky WR3.
When it comes to the Giants, this should be a Saquon Barkley smash game. Barkley has averaged 22.5 touches in 126.5 total yards over the last two games while averaging nine targets with a 25% target share. Additionally, he has averaged 3.44 yards after contact per attempt and gets a Colts defense that, since Week 11, is 32nd in success rate, 28th in EPA, and 26th in yards.
Expect 55-degree temperatures, eight mph winds, and mostly sunny skies in East Rutherford for Week 17.
New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5), O/U 41.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Jalen Hurts will miss Week 17, leaving Gardner Minshew as the starting quarterback. It’s almost fitting Minshew gets to win managers a championship after finishing as the QB5 with 355 yards and two passing touchdowns last week, with one score on the ground as well.
The New Orleans Saints are a more difficult matchup, as they sit third in EPA and first in success rate since Week 11. With that said, I would still consider Minshew a high-end QB2 who could finish as a low-end QB1. Even if I’m not starting him, I am pulling Minshew onto my bench just for the good vibes.
Those good vibes are not felt for the Saints, however. While Alvin Kamara scored for the first time since Week 8, he remains one of the season’s bigger disappointments. Kamara is coming off arguably his best game of the season with 110 yards as the RB8 against the Cincinnati Bengals, but that was the first time he had finished as an RB1 since Week 8. Additionally, last week was his first time recording over 13 PPR points in his last seven games. He’s a volume-based RB2 for Week 17.
As for the weather forecast report in Week 17 in Philadelphia, we should expect highs around 38 with five mph winds and partly cloudy skies.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5), O/U 40.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
If I am Carolina, I’m just hitting repeat on whatever the game script was last week. D’Onta Foreman saw 17 touches and 145 total yards, while Chuba Hubbard had 125 yards on 12 carries. It’s been feast or famine for these two running backs, and while I don’t expect the same success as last week, Tampa Bay no longer has the pass-funnel defense they have over the previous two years. They sit 22nd in yards per game, 19th in points allowed, and 27th in explosive run rate. Foreman is a low-end RB2, with Hubbard a mid-RB3.
The Week 17 weather report should be pleasant in Tampa, with temps around 76, calm winds, and cloudy skies.
Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders (-1.5), O/U 40.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Realistically, most teams don’t have the option to do this, but there’s a case to be made for benching Nick Chubb. Since Week 13, he is averaging 20 touches and 83.8 total yards. He hasn’t scored since Week 12, and his RB23 finish in Week 16 was the only time he’s finished as an RB2 or better. I have him as an RB2 against a Washington Commanders rush defense that has taken a bit of his nose dive since Week 11, as they rank 17th in yards and 18th in DVOA.
With Antonio Gibson out, Brian Robinson Jr. should have a fantastic game. He has averaged 19.8 touches and 90.6 total yards since Week 10 and is an upside RB2 against a Cleveland Browns defense that is 25th in yards and 24th in EPA. I would also look at Jahah Dotson if you need a Flex option this week.
The rookie from Penn State now has 235 yards and three touchdowns on 24 targets over the past three games after catching six of nine targets for 76 yards and a score against the San Francisco 49ers. Dotson has scored in three straight games, but more importantly, he’s averaging eight targets per game (which is better than streaky touchdowns) with 16+ PPR points per game.
Expect 58-degree temperatures, four mph winds, and mostly sunny skies in Washington D.C., for Week 17.
New York Jets (-1.5) at Seattle Seahawks, O/U 42.5 | Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
The best thing that could’ve happened was the return of Mike White, as he’s been around for this offense’s best fantasy performances. The biggest benefactor of this is Garrett Wilson. With White under center, Wilson saw a 23% target share, 50% end zone target share, 37% air-yard share, and 107.3 receiving yards per game.
Wilson finished as the WR5, WR9, and WR26 in fantasy while averaging 2.56 yards per route run. He’s a low-end WR1 against a Seattle Seahawks secondary that has allowed the third most yards after the catch to receivers.
Tyler Lockett is also looking to make his return after missing one game due to an injury that required finger surgery. Lockett is the WR12 in fantasy with a 23.6% target share and a 32.1% air-yard share and will be a low-end WR2 for Week 17.
As for the Week 17 weather forecast in Seattle, expect mostly cloudy skies and 45-degree temperatures with four mph winds.
Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers (-3), O/U 48.5 | Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
I do not envy fantasy managers who have Christian Watson on their team. Watson (hip) was a non-participant Wednesday and Thursday and managed a limited practice on Friday. He enters Week 17 as a game-time decision as the ultimate boom-or-bust play this week.
We know how special Watson can be as Aaron Rodgers’ top target, but if Watson is on a snap count restriction or tweaks his hip, he could put up a zero. He’s a WR3 with a massive upside but a dangerously low floor.
Aaron Jones is also questionable (knee/ankle), but he is expected to play. At the same time, I would lower his floor and ceiling, as I’d expect A.J. Dillon to cut into his reps. Dillon has scored a TD and finished as a top-20 RB in each of the last four weeks (RB13, RB6, RB9, RB20).
Green Bay’s Week 17 weather forecast should feature 39-degree temperatures, mostly cloudy skies, and six mph winds.
Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens (-2.5), O/U 35.5 | Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET
I am not expecting this to be an overly exciting game from a scoring standpoint. Baltimore is 31st in neutral pace while the Steelers are 25th, and each team ranks top six in neutral rushing rate.
I don’t feel great about any of these players for fantasy, either. I’m staying away from Tyler Huntley and Kenny Pickett, and while Najee Harris is the RB20 in fantasy, he’s facing a Ravens defense that is second in success rate and EPA since Week 11.
He’s a volume-based RB2 with just as volatile of a floor as J.K. Dobbins, who, after back-to-back 120-yard outings, was held to a scoreless 59 yards rushing last week. He’s a low-end RB2 that will lose carries to Gus Edwards.
Diontae Johnson is a low-ceiling WR4, while George Pickens is a WR3 who hopes to record at least a couple of deep shots against a Ravens defense that has allowed the highest completion rate and the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL on deep passes.
Expect 48-degree temperatures, five mph winds, and mostly clear skies in Baltimore for Week 17.
Buffalo Bills (-1.5) at Cincinnati Bengals, O/U 49.5 | Monday 8:30 p.m. ET
Outside of Chicago vs. Detroit, this is my favorite game on the slate. These are two fantastic offenses led by young, elite signal callers in Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. They are both inside my top four for Week 17.
Joe Mixon has maintained his lead-back role, averaging 18.4 touches and nearly 90 yards despite playing on less than 64% of the snaps over the last three weeks. Meanwhile, Devin Singletary has taken a bit of a hit. Granted, he will still have his massive games, as demonstrated last week with his 125 total yards.
However, Singletary is now consistently losing double-digit touches to James Cook, who is turning into one of the more explosive players with the ball in his hands. Mixon is a low-end RB1, while Singletary and Cook are volatile RB3s/high-end RB4s.
As for the weather forecast report in Week 17 in Cincinnati, we should expect highs around 58 with six mph winds and overcast skies with a 45% chance of light rain at 0.02 to 0.03 inches per hour.
Indoor Games in Week 17
Because these NFL games are indoors, the weather conditions can be controlled. As such, the only forecast and reports are that there will be optimal playing conditions for these teams. The passing and kicking games will not be affected.
- Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (-6)
O/U 40.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET - Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at Houston Texans
O/U 43.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET - Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-5.5)
O/U 52.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET - San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
O/U 42.5 | Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET - Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5)
O/U 41.5 | Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET