It’s fantasy football championship week. For those of you not playing this week, I’m sorry! For everyone still chasing that championship, the stakes behind start/sit decisions are as high as they will ever be. With the Miami Dolphins playing a must-win game with a backup quarterback, can fantasy managers start RBs Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. against the Patriots?
The Dolphins Continue To Split Work Between Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr.
Last week, I had Mostert as a recommended start. It was a premier matchup against the Packers, and I just didn’t buy Wilson returning from his hip injury to make any sort of meaningful impact. Wrong.
Wilson was immediately reinserted as the lead back, much to the chagrin of Mostert managers. He played 60% of the snaps against Mostert’s 52%. Most importantly, for fantasy purposes, when the Dolphins got near the end zone, it was Wilson punching in the short touchdown.
Even though Wilson was the lead back and scored, he still wasn’t particularly useful for fantasy managers. With just 40 total yards and the score, Wilson finished with 11 PPR fantasy points. He was the RB24 on the week. And that’s with the touchdown. Imagine if he didn’t score.
Actually, we don’t have to imagine it. Just look to Mostert’s line. He had 49 total yards and no touchdown, finishing with — you guessed it — 4.9 fantasy points. Neither back was particularly useful for fantasy, as they ate into each other’s work.
Since trading for Wilson, Miami has employed an inconsistent and unpredictable split between Mostert and Wilson. We’ve seen games with an even timeshare, games where Wilson dominates, and games where Mostert dominates.
If there’s a method to the madness, I haven’t spotted it. Unfortunately, it presents a challenging conundrum for fantasy managers who may need to start one of these guys.
Should Fantasy Managers Start Mostert or Wilson?
If you’ve been starting one of these backs for several weeks, you may not have a better alternative. But if you do, you should seriously consider that player.
In addition to the uncertain weekly split, this matchup is as bad as it gets. The Patriots allow the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs. It’s a great spot to take lowers on rushing totals on Underdog Fantasy.
Back in Week 1 when these teams met, Chase Edmonds led the Dolphins’ backfield with 12 carries for 25 yards, while Mostert ran it five times for 16 yards. No team has allowed fewer rushing touchdowns than New England.
MORE: Teddy Bridgewater Can Still Lead the Miami Dolphins to the Playoffs
As if that isn’t enough, the Dolphins are mired in a four-game losing streak and just lost Tua Tagovailoa, presumably for the season. At the very least, he’s out this week.
While Teddy Bridgewater is one of the more capable backups in the league, he’s still a backup. His starting will make it more difficult for the Dolphins to get into scoring position for the running backs to possibly find the end zone. I would recommend sitting both Mostert and Wilson, if possible.